For the first time in a decade, the harvest of female horseshoe crabs will be allowed in the Delaware Bay, a policy change that will threaten the survival of the red knot.
After overharvesting led to a decline in the populations of knots and other shorebirds dependent on crab eggs, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission will vote on whether to lift the female crab catch ban.
The population of female horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay was estimated between 2003 and 2012 by the commission. The bay's female horseshoe crab population has rebounded since the ban took effect.
The fishing industry in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia would be able to catch about 150,000 female crabs for bait next year under the new proposal. According to the commission, the crab population would not be threatened by the set of quota. The quota for the harvest of 500,000 male crabs would not change.
According to Larry Niles, a co-author and wildlife Biologist who has monitored shorebird migration on the New Jersey side of the Delaware Bay for 26 years, the density of horseshoe crab eggs on the bay's beaches is only about one-tenth.
A lack of recovery of horseshoe crab egg and shorebird abundance suggests that horseshoe crab harvest management has been inadequate to promote the recovery of horseshoe crab and shorebird populations.
Dr. Niles, who is a critic of the commission's policies, argues that allowing any catch of female crabs would further reduce the supply of eggs, which is already sharply lower than it was before the knot population plummeted.
They argued that lifting the ban would put more pressure on birds that are close to extinction. The knot was listed as threatened by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 2015, and the number of birds that migrate via the Delaware Bay beaches dropped to a record low in 2011.
The number of birds on the beaches has gone down because they can't find enough food. After a long-distance migration that begins in southern Argentina, crab eggs are needed to regain weight. Many birds will not be able to breed if there is not an adequate supply of horseshoe crab eggs.
An extract of crab blood is used to detectbacteria in medical products. The number of crabs taken by bleeding companies is not included in the commission's proposal.
The commission's plan uses inaccurate models that underestimate populations of crabs and knots, and that earlier declines in knots alongside higher crab harvests proves how reliant the birds are on this particular food source.
According to Timothy Preso, managing attorney of the biodiversity defense program at Earthjustice, they are assuming there is very little relationship between the two despite the fact that both remain deplete. There are some big questions that A.S.M.F.C. needs to answer.
The public has not been able to see the plan because the U.S. Geological Survey has not released details. The Geological Survey was looking at requests from Earthjustice.
Mr. Preso said that lifting the harvesting restrictions could be a violation of the act.
The commission said that it was not the result of pressure from the fishing industry and that it was based on improved modeling. Lifting the ban would have to comply with the act.
According to Tina Berger, a spokeswoman for the commission, the conceptual model of horseshoe crab abundance influencing red knot survival and reproduction remains intact with the intent of ensuring that the abundance of horseshoe crabs doesn't become a factor limiting the population growth of red knots.
Berger said the commission pointed to other factors threatening the knot population, including loss of habitat due to rising sea levels and coastal development, as well as disruption by natural predators such as peregrine falcons in breeding grounds.
According to Berger, the population of knots passing through the bay had been stable over the last few years.
There was a negligible chance that restarting the female harvest would reduce the knot population, according to the US Fish and Wildlife Service.
The birds declined because of the over-harvest of crabs in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The agency said that the crab population had grown large enough to survive a female harvest.
According to the Fish and Wildlife Service, the recommended female catch would be less than 2% of the population. The natural mortality rate of female crabs is between 26 and 28 percent a year.
The effects of natural mortality on the female horseshoe crab population would be indistinguishable from the effects of directed harvest. The availability of eggs for red knots and other shorebirds won't be affected by this low level of female harvest.
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