The Russians Have Lost Nearly 300 Aircraft Over Ukraine—Mostly Drones

The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces said last week that his troops have brought down hundreds of Russian aircraft in the last eight months.

That is an exaggeration. It's not by a lot. The destruction of Russian aircraft was confirmed by independent analysts. A total of 257 confirmed Russian losses have been recorded by the Ukrainians.

Here is the problem. Most of the losses and all of the captures are small drones that are easy to replace.

Zaluzhnyi's statement is unaffected by that caveat. Russia lost a lot of air space over Ukraine. During the 10-year war in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union lost more planes than the Ukrainians did.

Russian fighters and helicopters have been destroyed by Ukrainian fighters, ground-based air-defenses and saboteurs. There are at least five fighters and a plane that have crashed.

The Russian air force, navy and army have an active inventory of just three percent. The losses are concentrated among front line types. The Kremlin wrote off 15% of its best Sukhoi Su-34 strike fighters and 25% of its top attack choppers.

The RussianAerospace industry has been squeezed by foreign sanctions since February. Even though the sanctions were tighter, the Kremlin didn't buy new aircraft quickly.

It is buying them more slowly. The U.K. Defense Ministry said that Russia's losses likely outstrip their capacity to make new airframes. It may take a decade or more before flying units are back to full strength.

There is a manpower crunch. It is not known how many pilots have died in shoot- downs. There is a reasonable assumption. The Ka 52 crews are dying at a high rate. If you want to understand why, watch the video of the missile hitting the Ka 52.

Losing experienced crews could be more devastating to the Russian air arms than the loss of airframes. Russia's ability to regenerate combat air capability is reduced by the time required for the training of competent pilots.

The Russian air force, navy and army need to speed up flight training. Russia's heavy aircraft losses were caused by insufficient training. As green crews rush into combat, a training shortfall is likely to become even more important.

Ukrainian air-defenses are expanding with the recent arrival of U.S. made NASAMS and Spanish made Aspide missile-batteries. Germany has supplied Ukraine with guns. Russian crews are not safe in the sky over Ukraine.

Ukrainians have lost a lot of aircraft, so it is a comfort to Russian planners and pilots.

Ukrainian losses are half as bad as Russians'. The Ukrainians don't have as many planes to spare. 40% of the Ukrainian air force have been written off since the beginning of the war.

Three things are keeping the air force alive.

Both sides are losing pilots and planes at a rapid rate as the war progresses. Both sides have a disadvantage in the air. The Ukrainian air force with 125 combat aircraft has been able to fight to a standstill the Russian air forces.