Patrick Mahomes scrambles for the touchdown and 2-point conversion as the Chiefs tie it up at 17 with under three minutes to go. It was 0: 43. The halfway point of the football season is here. If you support one of the teams, your reaction might be different. The season has flown by for Jets and Vikings fans. If you're a Packers fan, you might be hoping that it's over. I'm going to give my award picks for the first half of the season because it's a good time to reflect on what we've seen. These are not my picks for who will win the real hardware at the end of the season, but my opinions based on what I've seen so far. I will note who I chose for the category in question and give my top three candidates in order. Comeback Player of the Year is the first thing we need to do. Jump to an award:
MVP | Top comeback | Best coach
Best rookies: Offense | Defense
Players of the Year: Offense | Defense Saquon Barkley was a running back for the Giants after week four. In the first quarter of the season, this felt like a one-person race, with Barkley emerging from years in the wilderness to become one of the league's best running backs. There is more competition at the halfway point. Two of the three players on this list would be considered some of the best signings of the off-season. Smith was not written off, but there were legitimate concerns that he was past his prime. When the Ravens wanted to sign him this off-season, his doctors wouldn't sign off on the deal because of his knee injury. He signed a one-year contract with the Vikings for less than $7 million. Smith has delivered more than the Vikings paid even if he spent the second half of the season ice fishing. He had three sacks against the Cards in Week 8. He has been isolated on the interior against overmatched guards and centers by Minnesota. He has been crucial for the Vikings. In terms of surprising veterans, Smith has to be on this list because he came back from being written off as a replacement level passer. He wasn't on the Seattle roster when the team traded quarterback Russell Wilson in March, meaning they didn't know about it. Smith went back to Seattle before the draft in April, so anyone could have signed him. Smith exceeded expectations after winning a competition against Lock. He is the leader in completion percentage and completion percentage over expectation. He ranks ninth in expected points added per dropback. Smith has rewarded the Seahawks for throwing more aggressively. He has been one of the most valuable players in the league, even though his season is more of a delayed breakthrough than a comeback. After three years of being slowed by ankle and knee injuries, a more traditional candidate is now looking like a player who can change the game. He's closer to the player we saw as a rookies, but he's the focal point of a Giants team that is competing for a playoff spot. The advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats can be used to tell the story. Rush yards over expectation is a measure of how many yards a running back gains against the same players on defense. As a freshman, he averaged 1.0 RYOE per carry. He's back up to 1.1 RYOE by the year 2022. Some of his biggest plays have taken place in the fourth quarter. He broke a tackle on the 2-point attempt that gave the Giants a victory. His 41-yard reception against the Packers was his biggest catch of the season. The runs of 13, 18 and 20 yards were the difference in the game. It's impossible to imagine the Giants doing well in the east. Nick Sirianni was with the Eagles after week four. There are only six realistic candidates for this award. There is good news and bad news. I was ready to put Mike Vrabel in the Hall of Fame, as his Tennessee team was winning for most of the game in Kansas City, but Patrick Mahomes pulled out the victory with his legs. His team, which was left for dead after an 0-2 start, is now 5-3 and continues to compete. Excellent coaches who have been around for a long time are almost never awarded this award. Who thought the Seahawks would be 6-3 after Week 9? The offense has led the way, but Carroll is getting the most out of players such as corner Tariq Woolen and edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu, and he deserves credit for being forward- thinking and pass friendly on offense with Geno Smith at quarterback. The team looks legit. It's not easy to keep out Kevin O'Connell, who has the Vikings at 7-1 with a prohibitive lead in theNFC North. O'Connell is the kind of coach who would usually win this award in real life. I'm not quite as taken by Minnesota as their record suggests, given that the Vikings have spent the entire season winning coin flips in one- score games. The coach who slowed down the Bills in the Meadowlands was the one I'll go for. The Jets had a string of backup quarterbacks earlier in the season, but they were able to beat the Packers in Lambeau and the Bills in New Jersey on the same day. The Jets' defense is playing well after a slow start. It's second in EPA allowed per snap, fourth in points per drive allowed, and third in red zone possessions allowed per game. I'm not sure about the second year quarterback, but he has turned around the defense. Tua Tagovailoa has both started and finished this season for the 6-3 Dolphins. Tagovailoa is playing better than he has before in the NFL, and while adding wideout Tyreek Hill to the mix goes a long way, remember that he could barely stay upright behind Miami's offensive line. If we only include the games Tagovailoa has started, Miami would have the best offense in the league. The Dolphins' most recent three-game winning streak has come against teams that are not very good, including the Bears, Lions and Bears. I don't think any other coach in this tier has won two games in a row. I'm easy to understand. I don't think it's possible for anyone to take the top spot until the Eagles lose. He helped lead the Eagles to a.500 record and a playoff spot in his first season as head coach. Many were expecting them to take another step forward in 2022. The start was not anticipated. It's a testament to Philadelphia's dominance that it hasn't been involved in many close contests this year. In the two games the Eagles have played, one was against the Lions and the other was against the Cards. There are some factors that have helped. One of the healthiest teams is the Eagles. The easiest schedule in the league has been played by them and they plan to face it in the future. At the end of the day, 8 is 8. The coach of the league's only perfect team is the coach of the year. The LB for the Jags after Week 4. The best games, original series and more are available to relive. You can watch on the internet. The defensive awards usually favor pass-rushers over players at other positions, but the only candidate who figures into the discussion for Defensive Freshman of the Year in that category is Aidan Hutchinson. The idea of nominating someone from the Lions defense, as good as they were against the Packers on Sunday, seems a bit too aggressive. Jaylen was my third-placefinisher after Week 4. I kept a big name out of the voting, but I have to get him back in as both he and his team have rounded into form. TheJaguars have struggled on defense, but Lloyd looks like a building block Lloyd is comfortable in pass defense and is trying to take away passing lanes. He didn't have another pass break until the first quarter against the Raiders on Sunday, after defending six passes in two games. Lloyd came up with his second quarterback knockdown in as many weeks and recovered the fumbled ball on the final play to seal Jacksonville's first win in more than a month. Lloyd's 30 stops are tied for fourth most in the league, and he has been advertised as a run defender. You've come to the right place, if you're wondering why DeAndre didn't play in the fourth quarter. While it was a team effort against Arizona's star wideout, Woolen is the primary corner on the right side of the defense for the Seattle. While Woolen was in zone coverage on another player,Hopkins caught a touchdown pass on a crosser and ended up with just four catches for 36 yards. The teams have been more aggressive in challenging Woolen. The 6-foot-4 corner is long enough to challenge any pass and fast enough to run with any wide receiver. He's allowing 6.9 yards per attempt in his direction, which is below the league average. The former mark is second in the NFL behind Philadelphia's C.J.Gardner- Johnson. It's not clear how the player out of UTSA fell to the fifth round of the draft. I don't think it's possible to keep Gardner out of the top spot. The Jets have excelled on defense since the beginning of the year. You can't make the same claim after seeing what the team did to the Bills on Sunday. The Jets forced him into two turnovers on nine drives. Josh Allen regretted his hole shot after being lured into it by the rookies corner. The Jets' second touchdown was set up by the second pick of the season byGardner. There is something special about whatGardner has done. He leads the league in defense. He has generated 26.3 EPA as the nearest defender. James Bradberry is the only other player in the league above 20 EPA. If the hope is that the next Darrelle Revis is the next Darrelle Revis, he's ahead of the curve. Pick after the fourth week of the season. I thought there would be some change in the top three, but the same three players I highlighted at the beginning of the season are still in the mix. The promising young Jets running back will miss the rest of the season after tearing his knee in Week 7. Hall would have been in the running if he had stayed healthy. Kenneth Walker could be the choice at the end of the year. He was a back up for the first month. The first four weeks will not seem like a big deal if Walker keeps up his current pace. The first month is almost half of the year since we're looking back from the halfway point. I would love to include an offensive lineman, but I'm not sure anyone is as good as left tackle Rashawn Slater. The center has been fun for the team. Since coming back from injury, Greg Dulcich has excelled. The Packers lost to the Lions on Sunday, but wideout George Pickens flashed, even though he was injured. The rookies produced a big three in the first half. It's rare for fourth-round picks to do well in their first season, but that's what has happened to Pierce. Despite the difficulties of the passing attack, he has succeeded. Davis Mills needed garbage time to get to 154 yards in the game against the Eagles. The Texans had more first downs on the ground than they did through the air. The Texans are a better run-blocking line than you might think. The young man has generated 118 RYOE and five first downs. Only Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs have a higher mark. The 75-yard run Pierce broke off against the Chargers is a bit of an outlier given his speed, but he is physical between the tackles and offers more in the passing game than his college profile would have suggested. The Texans need a building block. Wilson seems to be getting hotter. He went quiet for a few weeks after his amazing game in the comeback victory over the Browns in Week 2. He had six catches for 115 yards against the Pats last week, then eight catches for 92 yards against the Bills on Sunday. Wilson has averaged less yards per route run than the other superstars over the past two weeks. In the ninth week of the season, Matt Bowen breaks down a performance by a player. Wilson is the only wide receiver who can change directions in cramped quarters. He makes a weekly threat to do something embarrassing to a defensive back that will go viral. He has averaged 2.0 yards per route run over the course of the season, which is good for 18th place among wideouts. Wilson is a good choice for the Jets. Even without Monday night's game against the Ravens on the books, he rates as the best rookies wide receiver. His 2.5 yards per route run puts him seventh among all wide outs. While Wilson and Flacco have worked with each other, Olave has been targeted by other teams. Better, maybe, but it's not as if he's worked with Drew. He has become a multilevel threat in the passing game in a very short period of time. In recent years, we've been spoiled by how quickly Beckham and Jefferson were able to make their mark in the league. With Michael Thomas out for the season and the future of the Saints uncertain, Olave has taken over. There are a lot of questions about whether the Saints should have been so aggressive this year, but they have been satisfied with the outcome. Pick after the 4th week of the season. Bosa went down injured in Week 5, so you can either blame the award jinx or the sad realities of being a 49er. He missed most of the game against the Falcons. He has 2.5 sacks over the next two games, but he doesn't have the kind of edge-rushing lead he had in the first four games. Fitzpatrick missed his team's game in Week 6 as well. This week, everything you need.
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Comeback Player of the Year
3. Za'Darius Smith, EDGE, Vikings
2. Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants
Coach of the Year
3. Robert Saleh, Jets
2. Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
1. Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Defensive Rookie of the Year
3. Devin Lloyd, LB, Jaguars
2. Tariq Woolen, CB, Seahawks
1. Sauce Gardner, CB, Jets
Offensive Rookie of the Year
3. Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans
2. Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
1. Chris Olave, WR, Saints
Defensive Player of the Year
It is very difficult to vote when all this is happening. Matthew Judon has been living in opposing backfields for the past month and is currently leading the league in sacks. When he's healthy, he has been devastating. The Rams had a chance to win the game on Sunday, but Donald changed the game. Za'Darius Smith has made a difference. Advanced numbers stand out to me. Williams is having a good year. Sauce may be a new candidate. Three or four Eagles have All- Pro seasons. This one is unfair.
The second-year star in Denver is playing better than anyone else. The Broncos' defense has been lost in the shuffle because of their abysmal offense. They lead the league in both defensive and pass defense despite losing key players. They are ranked second in EPA per play. The unit is more than holding up their end of the bargain.
The best player for them is surtain. James Bradberry is the only one who allows less than 4.0 yards per target. The third-best mark is 0.6 yards per snap, according to the Next Gen Stats. Teams don't like targeting surtain and they don't get much. As the Broncos hit their bye, he has no picks or forced turnovers, and only one fumbled the ball.
Bosa would still be top of the list without the missing game. He leads the league with 20 knockdowns and is tied for second with 8.5 sacks. Bosa did this with missing time and a bye week under his belt. His presence is essential because he is an excellent run defender.
I don't think any defensive player scares opposing teams as much as Parsons. You are able to comprehend why. His quarterback knockdowns and sacks rank among the league leaders. In Week 8 he recovered a fumbled ball and had nine tackles for loss. That's all it would take to get the discussion going.
A case can be made that Parsons is more valuable. He leads the league in pressure. Donald, who isn't supposed to be on a level with anyone else, is the only player in the group who creates their average pressure as quickly as Parsons. Even more impressive is the fact that Donald is coming from around the edge more often than the other way around.
No one has a better pass rush win rate against single-teams or double-teams than Parsons, who draws double-teams, chips or offensive lines in his direction. This makes it possible for other pass-rushers. The 18 incompletions he's forced are second in the league behind Hendrickson. After a closer look, I don't believe anyone is making more of an impact in as many ways as I thought.
Pick after the fourth week of the season.
The offensive player of the year trophy is used to honor a player who doesn't throw a lot of passes. It is easy to eliminate some options here. Injuries to virtually every notable tight end have kept them from dominating over the entire first half of the game.
The future Hall of Famer continues an impossible run of health at one of the league's highest-attrition positions. The best running back, the best wide receiver and the best quarterback are all here.
As his efficiency metrics have gone down, he has fallen from second to third. There's nothing wrong with being ahead of the stars, as long as you're doing a good job. While Sunday was a frustrating game for the Bills, he helped create Buffalo's first scoring opportunity of the day by beating SauceGardner on a double move.
The scary thing is that a five-catch, 93-yard performance might qualify as a down day from Diggs, who already has five 100 yard games under his belt through the first eight games of the season. In an offense which throws the ball as much as anyone in the league and hasn't seen any of the secondary players take another step forward into stardom, Diggs is often asked to be the answer for Allen. He comes through a lot.
Chubb is in front of the two runners-up candidates at running back. Henry leads the league in rushing yards after a 115-yard game against the Chiefs on Sunday night, but it took him 34 additional carries to get to his 29-yard lead. Jacobs has been nearly as efficient as Chubb, but Chubb has 98 more rushing yards than Jacobs. Chubb has 10 rushing touchdown
It is less of a contest by advanced metrics. Chubb's 276 RYOE are 78 more than any other player. Chubb's ability to break down loaded boxes and short-yardage situations are some of the best in the game. Chubb has looked and played like a peak Henry all season, while Henry has looked and played like a peak Henry over the last couple of weeks.
Chubb has a lack of receiving work, but nobody compares to the 26 year old as a runner.
Hill might have a bigger lead over the rest of the competition. While he has played nine games and most of his competitors are at eight, Hill has more receiving yards than Jefferson. Hill leads the league in catches with76) and first downs with 48.
Efficiency is where Hill really distinguishes. Through the first half of the year, he is leading the league in both targets and yards per route run. The data goes back to 2007, so it's not a new thing. Through the first half of the season, no receiver has averaged more than 3.6 yard per route run. Rob Gronkowski averaged more than 3.5 yards per route run over the first nine weeks of the season in 2016 and he missed two games with injuries. Randy Moss ran a route that averaged more yards than Hill did.
Hill scored with a roundoff back tuck.
If there is a hole you can poke, it is a touchdown. He scored a touchdown against the Bears on Sunday. He already has four games this season in which he has had at least 150 yards. Hill might be setting a record by the end of the campaign.
Pick after the fourth week of the season.
I don't think there are any non-quarterbacks who can win the award. I had to struggle with seven candidates when I drew this list. While Lamar Jackson hasn't been consistent as a passer over the past month, two of them played their way off the list, as Trevor Lawrence has been a mess in the red zone. Jackson and Lawrence are both ranked in the top 22 in QBR.
Geno Smith is the leader in most accuracy-related statistics. He's fourth in the league in QBR and sixth in yards per attempt. I don't know if anyone else is throwing the ball as well as Smith is, but I will get to that in a moment.
The case against Smith was close to keeping him out of the top 3. He takes sacks at a rate slightly above league average, and the pick-six he threw on a swing pass Sunday helped push his EPA per drop back to 0.06, which ranks ninth among qualified passers. He can run and pick up a number of first downs on the ground, but he doesn't have the same impact as the top three candidates.
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Tua Tagovailoa has been the best passer in the league. It isn't close. Tagovailoa leads the league in QBR, yards per attempt, EPA and passer rating. Tagovailoa leads the way in each of the five significant measures of quarterback play. He has a signature win, including the late-game heroics in the comeback win over the Ravens.
Tagovailoa missed 212 games after he suffered a concussion. It's not realistic for a player to miss that much playing time and still win the Most Valuable Player award. In his first season in the league, Beckham missed four games, but came back to win the offensive rookies of the year award.
If Tagovailoa continues to play at this level and stays healthy the rest of the way, he could win the Most Valuable Player award even though the Dolphins went 0-3 while he was out with a knee injury. He has raised his level of play dramatically from previous seasons, but there's nothing in his performance to suggest it's a fad or unsustainable.
As good as Allen has been at times, turnovers and sloppy play are legitimate concerns for the Buffalo offense. In the Week 8 victory over the Packers, Allen threw two picks on Green Bay's side of the field, one on the 3-yard line. The Jets were able to keep things close because they had already beaten the Packers. The short field that Allen set up for New York became a crucial touchdown.
The last mark is the most used by a quarterback. Allen's intercept rate is 26th out of 35. He has thrown more picks this year than any other player. It's not a problem in the overall sense, since any coach would trade a few picks for what he can do as a player, but it does inspire negative comparisons between Allen and the other players in this area.
Allen has the ability to generate obscene amounts of value through his arms and legs. He ran for seven first downs as the Jets slowed down the passing attack. He knows that his upside is more often than ever before. The Bills lost a game in Week 9 due to turnovers.
1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
Allen had the best Year 3 jump in recent football history, but Hurts is starting to challenge that. He can challenge the guy in front of him as a passer. He has a higher completion percentage than Mahomes. The Eagles score 3.3 points per possession when they have a win expectancy of 10% or more, which is more than any other team. The offense is built around Hurts' talent.
Hurts and Mahomes are first and second respectively. Start on the ground. Hurts has more rushing yards than the Chiefs star, who just scored his first touchdown of the season in the win over the Tennessee. This is an advantage for Hurts.
Not quite, isn't it? When given the chance, he has been a more efficient runner than Hurts. Hurts has generated over 300 yards on 88 carries. He doesn't average much more than 3.8 yards per rush. While Hurts has made more than three times as many carries, Mahomes has only run 27 times and has averaged only 6.5 yards per carry.
Hurts has been slightly less efficient by completion percentage and yards per attempt, but he has generated more volume. The quarterbacks have thrown 330 passes to each other. It's partly because the Eagles have held big leads in the second half and have chosen to run the ball, but it's also because the added volume makes a difference. One of the league's highest rates of sacks is taken by Hurts.
In terms of passing EPA, Hurts has generated less than twice as much as Mahomes. As the starting quarterback of the league's last perfect team, Hurts is giving the coaching staff exactly what they want from him on a week-to-week basis. He has been the most valuable quarterback.
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