A 23-ton Chinese rocket will fall to Earth Friday. But when and where will it land?

There is no idea where or when the Chinese space junk will come down.

The core stage of the Long March 5B rocket was used to launch the third and final module for the Chinese space station.

The rocket body has been pulled lower and lower. The models suggest that the Long March 5B will come down on Friday, but the error bars on that prediction remain large.

An atmospheric reentry is predicted by TheAerospace Corporation on Friday at 7:21 a.m. You can add or subtract three hours. The potential line of fire for falling space junk can be seen in parts of North America, Central America, Africa, and southeastern Australia.

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Our latest prediction for #CZ5B rocket body reentry is:🚀04 Nov 2022 11:20 UTC ± 3 hoursReentry will be along one of the ground tracks shown here. It is still too early to determine a meaningful debris footprint. Follow here for updates: https://t.co/KZZ9LgLk0k pic.twitter.com/GlnE8C0IokNovember 3, 2022

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This is not the first troubling exercise we have been through. On all three previous launches of the vehicle, the Long March 5B core stages have fallen back to Earth without incident.

This is not a good feature of the Long March 5B. The first stages of other rockets are designed to ditch into the ocean or over unpopulated land after liftoff, and in the case of the Falcon Heavy, come down in one piece for powered landings and future reuse. The Long March 5B core stage can't steer itself down because it has no way to do so.

The rocket body will burn up in the atmosphere, but some of it will survive and pose a risk to people and infrastructure on the reentry path.

"The general rule of thumb is that 20% of the mass of a large object will reach the ground, but the exact number depends on the design of the object," TheAerospace Corporation wrote in a Long March 5B explainer. About 5 to 9 metric tons would be expected.

Space-based sensors using HEO Inspect caught the #CZ5B rocket as it continues its uncontrolled re-entry back to Earth.Our space-to-space imagery and intelligence supports strategic decision-making and accountability efforts by making space transparent.Powered by @Satellogic pic.twitter.com/kPZfSypFlANovember 3, 2022

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Since 70% of Earth's surface is covered by the ocean, the odds are that such debris will fall there. terra firma has welcomed debris before. The rocket remnants from the first Long March 5B launch hit the ground in a village in the West African nation ofIvory Coast.

No one was hurt in that incident or in any of the other crashes. Exploration advocates and other members of the spaceflight community condemned the fact that the falling rocket bodies pose no risk.

"Spacefaring nations must minimize the risks to people and property on Earth of reentries of space objects and maximize transparency regarding those operations," NASA Administrator Bill Nelson wrote in a statement just before the Long March 5B crash in May 2021.

He said that it was clear that China was not meeting responsible standards for their space debris. Ensuring the safety, stability, security and long-termsustainability of outer space activities is of paramount importance to China and all spacefaring nations.

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