The round of 16 has a dream opponent. There is a time and a place for it. The next time the focus of soccer is on the league, we will be near the end of February. The World Cup will end. We talked a lot about player wear and tear for the players on the four teams that played in the tournament. There is always a winter gap between the group stage and knockout rounds. Before we say goodbye to the world's biggest club competition, let's take a look at what we've seen and what we'll see when things get better. This one was pretty significant. Napoli and Club Brugge both won their first three matches and advanced to the next round of the tournament. You can watch LaLiga, Bundesliga, MLS, more on the US version of the network. Barcelona laid down huge chunks of future revenue to upgrade their team and contend again, despite the fact that three of their four teams failed to advance to the next round. They fell apart in solidarity with the Super League. Eintracht Frankfurt advanced to the knockouts after taking each of their last two games with winning goals. After a meek loss to Dinamo Zagreb on the first day of the season, Thomas Tuchel was fired from his job. Without a home and without most of the stars from recent Europa League runs, Shakhtar had a chance to make it to the last 16 with a win over RB Leipzig, but lost and finished third in the group. Celtic and Rangers provided electric atmospheres at Celtic Park and Ibrox Stadium, but they did not do much. We were left with sixteen. By the time we see these teams square off, the squad, form, and injuries will have changed. Teams are currently standing after two months. "You know what?" if they were to make a decision. It's time to keep things going. Who are the favorites to win the round of 16? The three teams have accomplished a lot. They might not be able to stay in the knockout rounds. Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: <1% Group play has the best characteristic of extreme creativity. The tournament exposes you to a number of different exciting players and styles, and Brugge's impossibly young attack -- each of their five goal scorers are between 17 and 23 years old -- was at its most energetic and creative in their romp against Porto. Since 1989, when they reached the round of 16 in Europe's top competition, the furthest they've gone is in this year's group stage. They only needed one win to make it that far. The group stage's most Valuable Player was the ruthless run of the German team. Their ability to create shots at any volume was one of the things that dried up the goals. They had the fourth-fewest shots in the tournament. They finished in the top five in xG per shot. Anything they created was enjoyable. Simon Mignolet might not continue to stand on his head. The wily veteran has been incredible in the tournament and has kept five clean sheets. The only thing that got through was Porto's victory. Even though opponents averaged more shots per possession, he allowed them to advance. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it won't happen. Title odds, per FiveThirtyEight's SPI: <1% They don't allow you to shoot. You can't win the game with elimination on the line. After four group stage matches, Die Adler needed two wins to move on to the knockout stage. They allowed zero or one goal in four of five matches, and their shot prevention averages put them in a good position. Four teams allowed less than 0.10 shots per possession in the group play. They were able to navigate the waters better than their opponents thanks to their sturdy defense and timely creative contributions from the likes of Daichi Kamada and the wonderful Jesper Lindstrom. The ball cannot be retained. Some less impressive people are here. Rangers, Viktoria Plzen, Salzburg and Eintracht averaged less than 4.2 passes per possession. Only one team made it to the next round. Eintracht had their moments, but they didn't have a lot of possession. The knockout rounds won't be the last. The title odds are 2%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +5000 (implied odds: 2%)Tier 4: The rank outsiders
16. Club Brugge
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +12500 (implied odds: 1%)
15. Eintracht Frankfurt
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +10000 (implied odds: 1%)
14. AC Milan
Group play has a lack of weaknesses.
Milan's group stage statistics do not stand out to me. Their goal and xG differentials were 13th and 10th best. They were one of the best teams in the tournament.
Despite being swept by Chelsea, they were able to exploit weaknesses against FC Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb to advance. There were some stars who played well, like the four goals and two assists of Olivier Giroud and the two goals and two assists of RafaelLeao. I would really like to have something more interesting to say.
There was a red flag and no plan B.
Milan tried an above-average number of crosses and completed a large percentage of them, despite the fact that they had a somewhat old-school front man. While 22% of their carries were deemed progressive, opponents started more than half of their possessions in the middle third.
There were certain ways in which Milan could score and advance the ball. The definition of an above-average team was what they were.
The ceiling for these teams is likely to be the quarterfinals.
The title odds are 3%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +12500 (implied odds: 1%)
Their shots were high quality.
The squad suffered through a dismal early-season stretch, dropping too many points in league play and losing their first two games in the European competition. They won their last four matches by a combined 11-1 and finished first in Group B.
Porto averaged 0.15 xG per shot, and in terms of post-shot xG value for shots on target, they were second best behind only Napoli. Taremi tried seven shots of 0.2 xG or higher and put five of them in the net.
The shots of the opponents were high quality.
In their first two matches, they allowed a decent 0.12 shots per possession, but opponents averaged 0.14 xG per shot. Only Barcelona allowed a higher percentage of shots. There are a lot of good attacks in the knockout rounds that can get away with it.
The title odds are 2%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +4500 (implied odds: 2%)
Group play's best characteristic is defensive resilience.
Edin Terzic has been in charge of BVB for a while. This attack- and possession-hungry team has had to adapt because of the absence of Erling Haaland. They easily advanced from Group G despite dominating possession in a flawed fashion.
BVB allowed zero transition goals despite playing a pair of matches against Manchester City. They made it work, taking four points from Sevilla and drawing with City, even though their overall possession rate was less than half of league play.
The red flag is if they can flip the "be assertive" switch back. Is it a good idea to have them?
One way or the other, Terzic will need to settle in on something in the months to come, as BVB has been stagnant without a clear identity. He may be trying to figure it out when the round of 16 begins. It seems like that doesn't bode well for their chances of moving on.
The title odds are 2%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +7500 (implied odds: 1%)
Great attackers are the best feature of group play.
RBL's hopes of making it to the next stage of the competition were almost derailed by an early- season slump. Marco Rose has fixed the former so far. They handed Real Madrid their first loss of the season in the process.
The Ukrainian side are still winners despite the end of Shakhtar's dream.
The five players combined for nine goals and five assists in their last four games. With Xaver Schlager providing cover for the center-backs, RBL have at least partially mitigated their defensive breakdowns.
Rose gave the good version of RBL more of a chance to show itself.
They can make your attackers even better.
RBL gave opponents too many good looks even though Rose was in charge for most of the group stage. Half of opponents' shots were worth at least 0.2 xG, and 12% of their shots were worth at least 0.2 xG. The RBL team seems to be good and bad.
The title odds are 2%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +4000 (implied odds: 2%)
The best thing about group play is that their shots were better than yours.
Inter averaged a healthy 0.12 xG per shot, with 59% of their shots coming from inside the box, despite the fact that they played against two of the best teams in the world. Is this a group of opponents? They averaged 0.08 xG per shot, with 42% of them in the box. They played Barcelona twice.
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Simone Inzaghi's Nerazzurri ceded possession and control of the pitch, but created most of a match's good opportunities, often through transition.
The flag is red due to passivity.
As old as the sport itself, ceding the field to open up transition opportunities is a strategy that has been used many times. Considering who Inter would have to beat to make a deep run in the spring, the idea of giving opponents more progressive carries and progressive passes and starting more possessions in the attacking and middle thirds is dicey.
The title odds are 3%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1600 (implied odds: 6%)
They bogged teams down in the middle of the field.
A finishing slump of sorts nearly derailed Spurs' advancement hopes, but they not only survived but also won their group thanks to a late 2-1 win over Marseille on Tuesday. Their xG differential was 10th best in the group stage and they averaged just 1.3 goals per match.
The wild finale to Spurs' group in the European competition.
Spurs dominated in the middle of the field. They began 45% of their possessions in the middle third, preventing teams from moving into attacking areas and giving them a majority of the touches in the box. Eric Dier and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg were too much for several teams. We'll see if that's still the case.
The red flag has a bad finish.
They will need the A+ version of Kane to advance in the spring, even though they advanced with minimal contribution from Kane. With Kane captaining one of the World Cup favorites, he could add quite a few matches to his legs in the coming weeks.
It wouldn't be surprising if any of the five teams caught fire in the spring and win the title.
The title odds are 3%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +5000 (implied odds: 2%)
It's the best characteristic of group play.
After leading a swashbuckling PSV team to the Europa League quarterfinals and a near title in the Eredivisie, Roger Schmidt took over a Benfica team looking for an identity in a more technical and attack-unfriendly league.
It has worked out well thus far. They were both equal in group play, drawing with the French giants twice and winning Group H on tiebreakers. They were fourth in xG per shot and fifth in percentage of shots worth more than a certain amount. They tried a lot more solo and transition possessions than most of the other teams here. Many of it worked.
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There is a Friday in November. There are four
• Darmstadt vs. Hannover (1:25 p.m. ET)
• M'bach vs. Stuttgart (3:20 p.m. ET)
• Genk vs. Charleroi (3:40 p.m. ET)
• Girona vs. Athletic Club (3:50 p.m. ET)
• Reading vs. Preston (3:55 p.m. ET)
There is a Friday in November. It was 5.
• Swansea vs. Wigan Athletic (11 a.m. ET)
• Charlton Athletic vs. Coalville (11 a.m. ET)
• Mainz vs. Wolfsburg (10:20 a.m. ET)
• Berlin vs. Bayern Munich (10:20 a.m. ET)
• Werder Bremen vs. Schalke (1:20 p.m. ET)
• Barcelona vs. Almeria (3:50 p.m. ET)
• Louisville City vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies (7:30 p.m. ET)
In the spring, we will find out about their staying power, but they took the fight to both of them and looked great doing it.
It's a red flag thatagonists don't win.
If you aren't from an overall talent perspective, solo trips and too many transitions can catch up to you eventually. Underdogs usually have to play a more proactive style to advance past a certain level of competition. The journey is just beginning and we will see how long they can keep up. Longer is better.
The title odds are 4%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1400 (implied odds: 7%)
Stinginess is one of the best characteristics in group play.
You have to respect the old school way of doing things. It's possible that you're banged up and in need of lineup changes a lot. It's possible that you brought in a new manager after driving your old one out. It is possible that you are still trying to find your footing. If your opponent can't score, you can't win.
After losing to Dinamo Zagreb, they allowed three goals in five matches to advance. They were first in shots allowed per possession and seventh in xG allowed per shot. No team allowed fewer shots from transition possessions than the other team. The stinginess was very close to that of the Mourinho era.
The red flag was that opponents were almost as good.
They were equally inconsistent in their attacks as they were in defense. They were ranked 15th in shots per possession and 23rd in xG per shot through five matches. They scored five goals in two matches against AC Milan, but have been inconsistent in their play in the league. Potter has more time to experiment and find his ideal lineup.
The title odds are 7 percent.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +800 (implied odds: 11%)
They dominated transition.
It's also a good idea to set pieces as well. In transition possessions, the Reds scored seven goals and allowed one. They scored six set-piece goals from nearly five shots, which was the tournament's best.
After the shock-and-awe of their initial 4-1 loss to Napoli, the performance of the Reds suggested that transition and set pieces are two of the most opportunist phases of the game.
The opponents didn't need a transition to look great.
Despite offering almost nothing in transition, the Reds allowed opponents to average 0.13 xG per shot, ninth worst in the competition. You can break them down in a number of different ways. They were fortunate to allow only six goals in the group stage, but we will see who they add in the January transfer window.
The title odds are 8%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +650 (implied odds: 13%)
Push is the best characteristic in group play.
The latest version of Messi has begun to look the same. The man is playing his best ball in a long time. KylianMbappe is still KylianMbappe. The youth in the middle of the field has rejuvenated it.
There were some issues with the attention span in October, but they were still able to qualify. While teams are often led in carries by central defenders pushing into the empty space in front of them, Paris Saint-Germain did it from the front, with the exception of Marco Verratti.
The Mbappe-Messi-Neymar trio combined for 13 goals and 9 assists from 38 chances created. They didn't play in all the matches.
There were no big chances.
It's worth noting that only 5% of their shot attempts were worth more than 0.2 xG, and that singular huge chances are worth their weight in gold. Only one team advanced in the competition after creating a lower percentage.
Real Madrid defeated Celtic to top Group F in the European Championship.
The title odds are 8%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1100 (implied odds: 8%)
Group play is best when they create chances at will.
The defending champ made things easy for themselves this time around, winning their first three matches and making it easy for them to advance. They used wave after wave of close range shots.
Real Madrid averaged 0.24 shots per possession, second only to Manchester City, and they attempted more shots in the box than any other team. They averaged 3.8 shots per match on set pieces. Their actual scoring numbers were fine, in part because of a brief finishing slump from Ballon d'Or winner Karim Benzema (14 shots, 1.5 xG created, zero goals), but it's hard to worry too much about this.
The red flag was that they relied too much on Real Madrid.
The two teams were tied until the 80th minute when they scored two goals. They were behind Shakhtar until the fifth minute of the second half, when Antonio Rudiger came through with a bloody headed goal.
Their goal differential in the first 60 minutes was a mediocre + 0.2 per match, but it rose to +0.8 in the final 30. It's an approach that can let you down at times, but they rode this recipe to a win in the European Championship.
We will give a top-tier status to the most dominant team of these six matches, one that got younger, cheaper and more fun this winter and spring.
The title odds are 5%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +1200 (implied odds: 8%)
It's the best characteristic of group play.
Luciano Spalletti's team had won 13 matches in a row and hadn't lost since last April, but they were beaten 2-0 by the Reds. In the group stage, they scored at least three goals in every game.
Kvaratskhelia, Diogo Costa, and more were included in Karlsen's team.
Five new additions combined for 11 goals and eight assists. They had a meaningless final match. The longer they stay in the competition the better.
The ball is given up a lot in dangerous places.
Opponents began 9% of their possessions in the attacking third and 42% in the third middle. It may have distracted us from the fact that opponents were creating more touches in the attacking third than they were in the defensive third.
The two teams that started the competition as co-favorites have given us no reason to take them out.
The title odds are 24%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +450 (implied odds: 18%)
Group play has the best characteristic of no one controlling the middle more.
The group stage is controlled by no one. They swept their six matches for the third straight season despite being in the group of death. Their style was to seize control of matches quickly and create high-quality chances nonstop.
"They're Bayern" didn't do it for me. The German champ dominated the middle of the pitch. They attempted just 9.7 crosses per match, their average possession width was just 32.8 meters, and a third of their touches came from the middle third of the pitch. Nine of their 15 assists and 48 of their chances created came from that location. You can't stop them from coming at you.
The shots were a bit too accurate.
While they ranked fourth in xG per shot, they ranked a distant first in putting half of their shots on target. The opponents had the second-lowest percentage of their shots. They are definitely one of the co-favorites, but the ratio will likely change in the spring.
Rico Lewis was the youngest player to score a goal in the European competition.
The title odds are 25%.
Title odds, per Caesars Sportsbook: +190 (implied odds: 34%)
They are the best passing team in the world.
They are still a part of the Manchester City family. In the group stage, they had a possession rate of 34%, engineered 80% of their touches in the attacking third, and allowed just 24 progressive passes per match. The Sky Blues smothered their opponents and the match was theirs to lose.
There is a red flag that says not enough high-quality shots.
While the addition of Erling Haaland earned plenty of headlines and created a focal point in attack for City -- he scored five of their 10 goals in the four matches he played -- it's interesting to note that they also created only 50%. The teams that put more of their shots on target were the ones that were the primary challengers.
Rico Lewis broke Benzema's record in the European club competition.
Even though we can quibble with the quality of each team's group or the number of packed-in defenses each team saw, City's attack hasn't really improved with Haaland -- they've scored 37 goals in 12 EPL matches this year after scoring It's possible that having a focal point in a tight match will pay off down the line.
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