Track it Live: China's Latest Out-of-Control Rocket Expected to Crash on Saturday

On November 2, 10:00 a.m., there will be an update. The prediction was moved from late Friday to early Saturday for people in the Eastern Time Zone. At 12:51 a.m., the core stage is expected to re-enter. On November 5th, at 4:30 a.m. The bar was 14 hours.

Our latest prediction for #CZ5B rocket body reentry is:🚀05 Nov 2022 04:51 UTC ± 14 hours

Reentry will be along one of the ground tracks shown here. It is still too early to determine a meaningful debris footprint. Follow here for updates: https://t.co/KZZ9Lh2VoU pic.twitter.com/HeMwDu1VLR

— The Aerospace Corporation (@AerospaceCorp) November 2, 2022

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The third and final module, called Mengtian, was delivered from the Long March 5B to the space station. The Long March 5B is not allowed to be steered away from populated areas due to the fact that most rocket stages are brought down. China's space agency has left it up to chance as to where it will land with its heavy-lift launch vehicle.

We have to guess where the core stage may fall. The Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies is keeping an eye on the object. The company predicts that the re-entry will take place at 10:31 pm. On Friday, November 4th and Saturday, November 5th, you can watch. The time is U.S. time The data from the U.S. Space Force's Space Surveillance Network is used to come up with estimates.

It is not yet known where the debris will land. Thedebris footprint will become constrained over time, but if the prior episodes were any indication, we won't know until the minutes prior to re-entry. One hour error in the re-entry time equates to a 17,500 mile error in the crash location.

The Long March 5B core stage has crashed in an uncontrollable manner before. In the past, debris fell onto an inhabited area along the west coast of Africa, into the Indian Ocean, and into northern Borneo. Scientists are concerned that this could happen, but no one has been hurt or killed.

There are photos of the launch of the falcon heavy with military payload.

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