Doug Kezirian thinks the Bills will beat the Packers in a prime-time game. There is a time and a place. In the last 15 years, Tom Brady and Rodgers have accounted for seven of the last 15 Most Valuable Player Awards. The market is lagging behind the decline. Rodgers is a double-digit favorite for the first time in his career as the Packers visit the Bills. The Packers are currently riding a three-game skid and are a -190 favorite to miss the playoffs. Ed Salmons, head of the SuperBook and a Las Vegas veteran, said the point spread would be 6.5 if this game were played a few weeks ago. Rodgers has a bad thumb and it's obvious he's not throwing like he's 100%. Bettors try to seize value on a team that will rebound from poor performances. Even though they supported Brady on Thursday, they haven't backed the Packers at the park. The Baltimore Ravens were the favorites to win the game against the Buccaneers. "Brady playing at home against a defense that's been anything but stout is much different than Rodgers playing on the road against the best team in the league," Jay Romano said. "They were completely different places for two quarterbacks facing a crucial week for their seasons, as well as their careers." I can't wrap my head around the fact that these quarterbacks have combined for six straight losses. The amount of denial points to the fact that it all could have been avoided. Green Bay had a halftime lead in two of its losses. The NFL's margin of error has always been narrow but it feels like these guys are barely hanging on so I am not rushing to the window to back them. They still have their magic, but I am waiting to see some of their vintage selves. The Philadelphia Eagles are at the PittsburghSteelers.
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PennsylvaniaThe numbers you need to know
Derivative betting lines represent quarters and half. Sometimes we can find edges if the analysis highlights a certain angle. The Philadelphia Eagles have the best first-half points, points differential and time of possession in the league. They've held a halftime lead in all six of their games. Is that still going on after a bye week?
The Eagles are going to win the game in the first half.
Every bookmaker has their own philosophy. I don't think the bye is a good idea for Philly. The Eagles seem to have an ideal rhythm. We often see rust after a bye. I am hesitant to back them in the first half.
The TennesseeTitans are playing the Houston Texans.
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
The TennesseeTitans are the latest team to make a quarterback change. Ryan Tannehill will be out for a long time, but will be replaced by a young man who has never started a career before. The betting market changed. Tennessee was a one-point favorite at one point. A group of people bet on the Houston Texans + 2.5 and under 40 in the same game. The market adjusted accordingly.
There are different classifications of respected gamblers. Each sportsbook has their own methods for madness. The handicappers are handicapped by them. The beauty of technology is that.
On the other side of a game, there are respected bettors. It's true. According to my sources, the Texans are the best play on Sunday, followed by the Rams, Broncos, and the Texans under 40 years old.
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