The Russian Black Sea Fleet May Have Lost Another Flagship

For months, the Ukrainian navy has been looking for the Russian navy ship. The 409-foot missile-armed vessel in her home port of Sevastopol was attacked by the Ukrainians.

Dramatic videos were released by the Ukrainian government on Saturday that appear to show a successful nighttime strike on one of the ships.

The speedboat-size USV, possibly packing hundreds of pounds of explosives, dodged Russian helicopter and small boats and drove directly at the frigate before the video feed went dead.

There are no photos or videos on the internet that can confirm if the ship suffered any damage. Her crew blew up the drones before they blew up the boats. The kind of waterline damage that can sink a ship is what happened to Makarov or Essen. There was no mention of any fires that might have been caused by the blast.

History is repeating itself after the raid. The flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the 612-foot cruiser Moskva, was sunk by Ukrainian missiles in April.

The Ukrainians can still count on the nighttime strike being a victory even if Makarov is still afloat. The Black Sea Fleet ships were damaged in the raid. To avoid future USV attacks, the Russians will either have to devote more resources to protect Sevastopol or pull the Black Sea Fleet's three dozen or so surviving vessels from the peninsula.

The Ukrainian navy has excelled despite not having any large ships. In the early hours of February 23, the crew of the flagship of the Ukrainian navy scuttled the frigate at its moorings in Odesa.

The Russians dominated the Black Sea for the first couple of months of the war. They used Snake Island, 80 miles south of Odesa, as a base for air-defenses and surveillance gear and blockaded Odesa because of it.

The Black Sea Fleet was ready to land. Russia conquered the Black Sea coast and cut off the country from the sea permanently.

The rest of the Ukrainian navy's ships were captured or scattered by Russian forces. The Ukrainians used missiles, drones and USVs to retaliate.

On March 23, the Black Sea Fleet landing ship Saratov was hit by a missile while she was in the occupied port of Berdyansk. At least one other landing ship was damaged and the Saratov was sunk by the explosion.

The Russian cruiser Moskva was sunk by a Ukrainian navy anti-ship battery on April 13th.

The Black Sea Fleet's main air defense ship was destroyed by the Ukrainians. Fleet commanders pulled back the larger ships 80 miles from the Ukrainian coast in order to preserve their remaining large warships.

The rest of the Black Sea Fleet was exposed because of that. The U.K. Defense Ministry said that Russia has minimum protection in the western Black Sea.

The risk to Russian ships in the western Black Sea was compounded by the reinforcement of the Neptune battery with U.S. made Harpoon missiles. Several of the Black Sea Fleet's Raptor patrol boats and landing craft were sunk by missileers in coordination with drone operators.

There were rumors in May that a missile had hit the man. It turned out to be false. The support ship Vsevolod Bobrov was sunk by a Harpoon while she was on her way to Snake Island.

Russian gas platforms were struck by Ukrainian missiles. The treeless rock was rendered uninhabitable by the bombardment of Snake Island.

On May 31, the Russian garrison left the island. The Ukrainian flag was raised a week later. The liberation of Snake Island showed that the western Black Sea was safe for commerce.

Until Turkey brokered an end to the port blockade in late July, Odesa was still under blockade, but ships could now get grain out of Ukranian via canals.

In the wake of last night's raid, the river route may regain its importance. The agreement between the Kremlin and the Ukrainian government to allow grain ships to sail from Odesa was ending.

The Russians aren't acting like strong people. Russian commanders were unable to replace the Black Sea Fleets losses as long as Turkey kept control of the Bosphorous Strait joining the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The range of land-based aircraft and S-400 surface-to-air missiles are within the range of ships.

The Black Sea Fleet was hit by the Ukrainian drones. There are many ways in which the Ukrainian armed forces can sink a Russian ship.

In the western Black Sea, the Black Sea fleet is not safe. In Sevastopol, it isn't safe. In ports in Russia proper, tied up and guarded around the clock, is the only place where it is safe.