Putin oversaw a practice run of Russia's strategic nuclear deterrence forces.

Nuclear submarines, strategic bombers and missiles participated in the grom. Sergei Shoigu explained that the exercise was a response to a potential nuclear attack on Russia.

The drills were held in the Barents Sea, off the northern coast of Russia, and in the Far East, which is close to Alaska.

Putin said he would use all available means to protect Russia. Europe is worried that the war in Ukraine could lead to a nuclear attack.

Putin repeated the Kremlin's widely-discredited claims that it's Ukraine that's preparing a provocation against Russia.

Putin told the heads of special services of the Council of Independent States that the desire to get nuclear weapons had been made public. The plans to use the dirty bomb as a provocation are known.

The claim has been dismissed byUkraine and its Western allies.

Russia is accused of working on a dirty bomb at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in order to retaliate against the capital of Ukraine.

On Russian state TV the propagandist asked if Russia still has a nuclear capability.

The host of Rossiya-1 TV said that they are holding exercises with their nuclear weapons. I hope we can still use them.

Two men sit across from one another at a long table.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on October 28, 2022.
MIKHAIL METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images

Whether Putin is considering a nuclear or other catastrophic attack in Ukraine, or just playing out an elaborate bluff to gain leverage, is still a mystery.

Russia believes nuclear weapons should be used in self-defense. Some Russian officials have said that Moscow has the right to use nuclear strikes if there is a threat to the country.

Cold War fears of nuclear war have been revived by the conflict. Poland ordered an inventory of its bomb shelters earlier this month.

Mounting losses and limited supplies 

In Russia and abroad, there's concern that Putin is growing desperate for a quick victory and that his allies and supporters will be happy.

Russia has taken over four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine and built a land bridge to the peninsula. Russia has been buying weapons and drones from Iran and North Korea as the conflict has dragged on.

The number of Russian soldiers who have died is estimated by iStories. A Ukrainian official said in August that 9000 Ukrainian military personnel had been killed, but another source said the figure could be much higher. More than 8 million Ukrainian refugees have fled the country since February, according to the U.N.

Russia is running out of weapons, including missiles and helmets.

More than half of Russia's arsenal is gone, including most of the powerful Iskander systems, according to a report by a retired general. The Kremlin should not waste missiles, he said.

Western officials claim that the Kremlin has had to rely on Iranian drones because its cruise missiles are low. Speaking via video link at the G7 summit on October 10, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia had used Iranian drones to attack civilians.

A rallying cry from the hawks

Putin's main selling point was the promise of relative stability as Russia sought to regain its place on the world stage after the fall of the Soviet Union.

There is fear that Putin is going to fall into the hands of hardliners. These figures, who are given more freedom to speak their minds than anyone else in Russia, cheered the war, and have since pushed the Kremlin to be more brutal in Ukraine.

There was evidence that the pressure campaign was having an effect when Putin ordered the bombing of 12 Ukrainian cities on October 10, in revenge for the attack on the Kerch bridge.

The mix of generals, pro-Kremlin TV personalities, and ultra-nationalists was mostly positive.

On his Telegram channel, the pro-Kremlin war correspondent asked if the bombing was a one-time action of retaliation or if it signaled a shift in the war.

Alexander Sharkovsky, a Russian military expert, urged Putin to use nuclear " carpet bombings from the air" to destroy swaths of Ukraine.

He was concerned that Democratic Party leaders in the U.S. might be pushing for a victory in Ukraine as a show of strength in the run up to the elections. In February, the U.S. will send nearly $18 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine.

The deputy of the Duma has called on the military to destroy the electricity grid in the country.

He said that they would turn off all the electricity in the country. Crowds of refugees can cause traffic problems.

If the sewer system is blocked for a week it will be very interesting. There will be nasty stuff in the future.

According to President Zelensky, 30% of Ukrainian power stations have been damaged or destroyed.

The leader of the pro-Russian rebels who tried to wrest the Donbass region from the control of the Ukrainians has gone quiet in recent days. His wife made a statement about him going to the fronts.

A man in military dress walks forward as two men stand nearby.
Igor Girkin is seen in the city of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine on July 11, 2014.
Dmitry LovetskyAP Photo

The Ukrainian government put a $100,000 bounty on the head of the man.

The Kremlin seems to be losing patience with popular ultra-nationalists. Several Russian media outlets reported in October that law enforcement agencies were checking Telegram for posts that could be seen as defaming the army.

Domestic opposition to the war seems to be growing. Hundreds of thousands of Russian men have left the country since the announcement of the deployment. The Mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, made a sudden announcement on October 17th that the compulsory military service had ended. The shortfall may have to be made up by other regions.

Activists in the Republic of Bashkortostan want to seek independence rather than fight and die for Russia.

Kadyrov and Prigozhin

The Washington Post reported that Putin was confronted about his military's failures by the founder of the group known as Putin's Chef.

According to a report, Prigozhin told Putin that the Defense Ministry was giving too much support and that it was leaning too much onWagner.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is one of the big guns that can criticize Russia's war efforts. Kadyrov wrote in a Telegram post on the day of Putin's Valdai address that Prigozhin was a "born warrior".

Kadyrov said tactical and personnel changes are needed. It's not tomorrow.

He was harshly criticized by General Alexander Lapin, the commander of the Central Military District. According to Kadyrov, Lapin had been incommunicado for the past few days after the town of Terny was seized by the Ukrainians.

Kadyrov said he would demote Lapin to a private, deprive him of his awards and send him to the front lines to wash away the shame with blood.

The bromance between Kadyrov and Prigozhin is meant to undermine Shoigu's position and create a power structure to rival Russia's armed forces.

Kremlinologists like to see conflicts between power centers. Putin uses an old KGB tactic to encourage warring groups of people. It would be better if the clans fought each other instead of trying to oust him.

It is one thing to do such things during peacetime. In times of war, the stakes are very high.

A rush to heaven?

The day after supervising the military exercises, Putin insisted that the "special military operation" in Ukraine was still on track.

Speaking at the annual conference at Valdai, a Kremlin-backed think tank, the Russian president insisted that Russia's military doctrine was defensive and that he didn't want to be in the place of Nikita Khrushchev.

Putin said there was no need for that. There is no point in that.

The Valdai's research director reminded Putin of his comments at the same forum last year.

"Why do we need a world if Russia isn't in it?" was the question that was posed to Putin back then. Russian nuclear war victims will go to heaven as martyrs, while Western citizens will die without time to repent, according to an answer by Putin.

"Many people became slightly nervous remembering what you said four years ago, that we would all go to heaven," he said.

We are not in a hurry.

The foreign policy experts in the hall were laughing nervously.

It was alarming to see that Putin was lost in his thoughts.

Putin said that he was absorbed in thought for a purpose. The goal has been accomplished, he said quietly.