The possibility of Michigan and Ohio State making the playoffs was discussed by Heather Dinich and Paul Finebaum. There is a time and a place for it.
The College Football Playoff race is holding steady with six teams vying for four spots if we're generalizing.
I have been interested in what college football would look like if the system were in place. With the help of the Playoff Predictor and my colleagues on the analytic team, we can look at what we would see if there were 12 teams in the playoffs.
Let's breakdown it down.
Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Michigan are all teams with at least a 49% chance of being in the current four-team College Football Playoff. Six of the 12 teams have a good chance of making the playoffs.
That doesn't mean those teams will coast until the playoffs because none of them are locks for a bye. There is more on that in a second.
| Team | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ohio State | 99% |
| Georgia | 99% |
| Alabama | 99% |
| Tennessee | 98% |
| Clemson | 97% |
| Michigan | 96% |
| USC | 64% |
| TCU | 59% |
| Penn State | 59% |
| Oregon | 50% |
| Oklahoma State | 46% |
| Cincinnati | 42% |
| Ole Miss | 39% |
| LSU | 35% |
| Texas | 33% |
| Utah | 32% |
| Tulane | 27% |
| Syracuse | 22% |
| UCF | 21% |
| North Carolina | 16% |
| Wake Forest | 13% |
| UCLA | 10% |
| Kansas State | 7% |
| Illinois | 6% |
| Purdue | 4% |
| Mississippi State | 3% |
| All other teams under 3% |
The University of Southern California.
The chance of the USC winning the Pac-12 gives them a 32% chance of making the playoffs. Even in simulations in which they don't win their conference, they're strong at-large bid candidates and have a 32% chance of making the playoffs that way. Lincoln Riley and the USC have a 2.5% chance of winning a national championship. It might not sound like a lot. It is better than the 1% chance the Predictor gives them now.
It's called Texas Christian University.
The Frogs have a good chance to win the Big 12, but that's not enough to get them into the playoffs. Winning the Big 12 would suffice. USC has a good at-large probability.
Penn State is located in the state of Pennsylvania.
There are at-large spots here. The Nittany Lions don't have a chance to win the Big Ten, but the extra at-large positions give them a chance. In the strength of record, Penn State is ninth.
There is a city called Cincinnati.
The good news is that if the Bearcats win the American Athletic Conference, they'll get an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. The other Group of 5 teams are not a real threat to them this year. Cincinnati is in charge of its own fate.
The bad news is that it has no other options. Cincinnati won't get in as an at-large because it needs to win its conference.
Every day of the week, Cincinnati would take that deal.
Not only would the current top six teams not be locks for a bye in the playoffs, some of them would be long shots.
| Team | Chance |
|---|---|
| Clemson | 78% |
| Ohio State | 63% |
| Georgia | 46% |
| Alabama | 38% |
| USC | 27% |
| TCU | 25% |
| Michigan | 24% |
| Oregon | 22% |
| Utah | 17% |
| Oklahoma State | 17% |
| Texas | 14% |
| Tennessee | 9% |
| All other teams under 5% |
One of the effects of the 12-team playoff is that it makes it more important to win your conference. Georgia would only have a 45% chance at a bye if they reached the playoffs. The state of Michigan would have a bye. Tennessee has just a 9% chance of getting a bye.
Other teams that don't make the playoffs would have a better chance of getting a bye. USC, TCU, and Oregon all have a chance at a bye, even if they are not in the playoffs. Utah, Oklahoma State, and even three-loss Texas could all win their conferences and still have an outside shot at winning the title.
The new system weighs heavily on winning the conference.
There is a flattening of the championship chances because of the playoffs. It's expected that more teams in the playoffs means more hoops to jump through to win it all.
In the real world, Ohio State has a 31% chance of winning the national championship, but only a 25% chance with a 12-team playoff this season.
Only six teams have a chance of winning the national championship. But if there were 12 teams in the playoffs? Thirteen would be there.
| Team | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ohio State | 25% |
| Alabama | 20% |
| Georgia | 20% |
| Clemson | 8% |
| Michigan | 7% |
| Tennessee | 4% |
| Texas | 3% |
| USC | 3% |
| Utah | 2% |
| TCU | 2% |
| Oregon | 1% |
| LSU | 1% |
| Oklahoma State | 1% |
| All other teams under 1% |
The current contender that aren't conference favorites are the current group of teams that the 12-team format helps in terms of reaching the playoffs. Right now, the two teams each have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If they had a chance at a bye in the 12-team format, the Wolverines and Volunteers would go to a four-round playoff instead of a three-round one.
Michigan's chances of winning the national championship dropped from 9% to 7%, and Tennessee's dropped from 7% to 4%.
Lauren made a contribution to the article.
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