Those going apoplectic over the headline should know that self- driving isn't going to be a thing in our lifetimes. In terms of the daily lived experience of most people reading this, it isn't going to happen in the near future. The evidence pointing to this has been mounting for years now, if not decades, but it's now tipped the balance to where it's hard to ignore.
The decision to make this call is dependent on one big event from Wednesday, when Ford announced that it would be winding down the company that was backed by it and Volkswagen. When Ford released their Q3 earnings a few hours later, they explained that they were shutting down Argo to focus on ADAS systems with internal resources.
On the company's earnings call Wednesday evening, Jim Farley said that "profitable, fully autonomously driving vehicles at scale are a long way off and we won't necessarily have to create that technology for ourselves" The sentiment was similar to that of a much younger and more tech-forward automaker CEO from just last week.
Rivian's plan is to focus first on L2 and L3 ADAS, with its existing shipping vehicles capped at L3 given their current hardware limitations. He believes that L4 is currently possible for companies with the proper advanced hardware kit on cars, but only if they are located in a specific area.
GM's Cruise and Waymo are two companies that are currently operating self driving vehicles on public roads. It will happen if two for-profit companies are already doing it.
The existing services are limited in terms of geography and operating hours and that seems unlikely to change at a pace that would make them ubiquitous in any reasonable period of time. Residents who have to share the road with the existing services face constant criticism.
It is possible that Cruise and Waymo's vehicles are malfunctioning. In a future where its Full Self-Driving technology actually lives up to its name, and with an expanding pool of users employing the tech on public streets and frequent software updates that on at least one occasion have, it seems that the company is more intent on hard charging into a future where it Under the misguided belief that compute, artificial intelligence and optical input will improve and combine to act as a cure-all, Musk wants to remove as many sensors as possible from the kit.
It looks like Musk may have to explain in more detail to the U.S. Department of Justice if they decide to take any action related to the criminal investigation.
The time to consider the opportunity costs of shovelling money into the autonomy engine on autopilot is now. The shuttering of a company that was considered a leader in its field is a good sign. I barely scratched the surface on the regulatory and public acceptance of self-driving cars, which will probably lag technological development.
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