The world's leading energy agency said the energy crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is likely to speed up rather than slow down the transition away from fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency said in its annual World Energy Outlook that the effect of the war in Ukraine on fossil fuels will be short lived.
For the first time, the agency predicts that demand for fossil fuel will peak in the next few years.
Wind turbine, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps are some of the ways that many countries have responded to the high prices of fossil fuels. Congress approved more than $370 billion in spending for such technologies in the US. Nuclear power, hydrogen and other low-emissions technologies will be funded by a new program in Japan. China, India, and South Korea have set national targets for renewable power.
The shift to cleaner sources of energy isn't happening fast enough to avoid dangerous levels of global warming unless governments take stronger action to reduce their planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions over the next few years.
Coal use is expected to start declining in the next few years, natural gas demand is likely to hit a peak by the end of the decade, and oil use is projected to level off by the mid-decades.
The agency said that global investment in clean energy is expected to more than double in the next 15 years.
The agency's executive director said that many of the new clean energy targets aren't being put in place solely for climate change reasons. A lot of countries want to be at the forefront of the energy industry of the future because of energy security and industrial policy.
The energy agency estimated that current energy policies will cause the world to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2025. The projections released by the United Nations are in line with what nations have said about tackling emissions.
Many world leaders hope to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid some of the most dire and irreversible risks from climate change. Scientists have said that it would require steep cuts in greenhouse gases, with emissions not peaking in the next few years but falling nearly in half by the end of this decade.
If we want to hit the more ambitious climate targets, we would need to double the investment in clean energy. There isn't much investment going into the developing world.
This year, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise roughly 1 percent and approach record highs, in part because of an increase in coal use in places like Europe. Coal is the mostpolluting fuel.
When war broke out in Ukraine, some analysts thought that the increase would be much higher. The rise in emissions would have been three times larger had it not been for the rapid deployment of wind turbine, solar panels and electric vehicles. Weak economic growth in Europe and China made a difference in keeping emissions down.
The recent increase in coal use may be short lived. European nations are planning to install 50 gigawatts of renewable power next year, which is more than enough to replace this year's increase in coal generation. The agency doesn't think investment in new coal plants will increase beyond what was expected.
Russia, which had been the world's leading exporter of fossil fuels, is expected to be hit particularly hard by the energy disruptions it has created. As European nations race to reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas, Russia is likely to face challenges in finding new markets in Asia. Russia's fossil fuel exports are not likely to return to their pre-war levels.
Even though the current energy crisis is expected to be a boon for cleaner technologies in the long run, it is taking a toll now.
Billions of dollars have been committed by governments around the world to protect consumers from high energy prices. European nations currently have enough natural gas in storage to get them through a mild winter this year, but the report warns that next winter could be even tougher as stocks are drawn down and new supplies to replace Russian gas.
Pakistan and Bangladesh are facing energy shortages due to the diversion of natural gas to Europe. The report said that 75 million people will lose access to electricity this year. It would be the first time in a decade that the number of people without modern energy has gone up.
It is possible that soaring energy prices could lead to social unrest in some countries. While the report concluded that climate change policies are not solely responsible for the spike in prices, it noted that renewable power and home weatherization efforts have actually blunted the impact of energy shocks in many regions.
Less than two weeks before the U.N. climate talks in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, diplomats will discuss whether and how to step up efforts to curb fossil fuel emissions and provide more financial aid from richer to poorer nations
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