There have been border disputes in the Caucasus and Central Asia recently.
As Russia devotes more attention to its war in Ukranian, the fighting has erupted.
Moscow's setbacks are seen by actors in those regions as an opportunity.
Russia may be losing control in its backyard as it concentrates its military power in Ukraine.
Several Central Asian countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union have had border battles recently. Did the Russians keep the peace between those neighbors? They are going to suffer heavy losses in Ukraine.
Jeff Markoff is a non-resident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Russia is no longer able to keep a lid on things in the region.
The most recent sign of trouble came in September, when the two Central Asian countries fought over a border region. More than 100,000 people were displaced.
The conflict between the two countries over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabukh flared again in September.
After a six week war in the fall of 2020, the region was captured by Azerbaijan.
The Collective Treaty Security Organization is a sort of Russian-led version of NATO that consists of the warring nations.
The CSTO sent 2,500 troops to help put down protests against corruption and oppression in the oil-rich country. After the 2020 war, Russian troops were stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia's relationship with Central Asia goes back hundreds of years.
The patchwork of mostly Muslim kingdoms across Central Asia was conquered by the Russians in the 18th and 19th century.
After World War I, the region broke away from the rest of the world.
Russia's leaders saw Central Asia as part of the Russia sphere. The former Soviet states of Central Asia were used to Moscow being the center of attention.
Russia is seen as the main security provider in the region. It's partly due to the fact that leaders from the Soviet system are looking to Moscow to sort out internal and inter-state issues.
The deployment of Russian troops has had a negative effect on conflicts.
Markoff said that the presence of Russian forces has meant that the Kyrgyz-Tajik conflict has been less dangerous than it could have been. The conflict could become worse now that Russian influence has weakened.
The influence of Russia in the region was already diminishing, as evidenced by the break from Moscow's sphere of influence by Azerbaijan. Moscow wants to keep Central Asia as a barrier against terrorism and other ills that it fears could spread into Russia.
Russia wants to keep Central Asia as a buffer against bad things from the south.
Moscow's headaches will only get worse from the Ukrainian war. More than 200,000 Russians have left the country since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
Housing prices in poor Central Asian countries have gone up due to the influx of Russians. Russian refugees are used to seeing Central Asia as a colonial backwater, which will lead to tensions.
China's influence is spreading across the region at Russia's expense.
"Especially for some of the younger people who have access to more sources of information, or who have traveled more, their perception of Russia and Russian capabilities is going to take a hit." It will have implications for how willing they are to fight back against Russia.
Markoff said that for now the conflict between the two countries was the one to watch, but that others may arise, pointing to the presence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan.
Markoff said that there are various actors who are interested in changing the status quo in one way or another.
His work has been published in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He has a masters degree in political science. You can follow him on social networking sites.
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