Christian McCaffrey trade: Should the 49ers have gone all-in?

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The 49ers' loss to the Chiefs on Sunday reinforced both sides of the debate surrounding Thursday's trade. If you liked the deal, you saw flashes of how special the running back could be, as he turned his 10 touches into 62 yards. The 49ers didn't win but they were worse on offense after the break. The possibilities for what this offense can do are endless once he learns the offense.

In a game in which the Niners' offensive line and secondary were picked on, the Niners lost by 21 points. They averaged more than 6 yards per play with and without him. The combination of Chuba Hubbard and D'Onta Foreman, who were overlooked in the offense, combined for 218 yards from scrimmage on 28 touches in the win over the Buccaneers.

Even as the league has gotten more and more trade-friendly, the McCaffrey trade is one of the most fascinating deals we've seen. The 49ers have the potential to be one of the best sets of players in the league. He is an injury prone, short-term rental for a team that is now below.500 and already has a first-round pick in the 2023 draft. The best- and worst-case scenarios for this deal appear to be completely plausible for the 49ers.

After giving the deal a couple of days of thought, I wanted to answer a few questions from the conversations that followed it. I have seen several comparisons that don't hold up. Other people are more reasonable. Leaving aside what we saw Sunday, let's start with the positives.

Jump to a question:

Is McCaffrey still at his peak?

Could he be a rental for the 49ers?

Could this mean another trade is likely?

Should San Francisco have gone all-in?

Is McCaffrey really a perfect fit for this offense?

Any running back can be that sort of difference maker. I mentioned before the season that he wanted to fill his offense with players who could do anything with the ball in their hands. This was before Lance broke his ankle.

The plausible deniability of being able to line up in any personnel grouping is what Shanahan wants. The NBA has adopted positionless basketball over the past 15 years, and his offense is very similar. A year ago, Deebo Samuel was the team's lead running back at the end of the season. Big plays up the sideline are only available to the 49ers. Teams that hired his assistants began emulating him. Every eligible receiver should be capable of doing something in the offense.

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It makes sense from that point of view. As a receiver in Carolina, his output was remarkable. He was the focal point of the passing attack for five years.

With mediocre quarterback play for most of his tenure, McCaffrey averaged 2.1 yards per route run. The numbers are in line with what Allen has done over the same time period on a route-by-route basis, and Allen has had better quarterback play without adding any rushing value. Over the past several seasons, the numbers have remained the same.

He can create mismatches as a receiver. The Rams didn't like the idea of choice with Cooper Kupp.

The 49ers prefer to use formations with Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle on the field, so teams have to match that type of blocking ability by playing their base defense. When playing base defense, George Kittle will be up against a linebacker in coverage on passing plays. In an offense that wants to give quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo easy answers and its receiver opportunities to make plays after the catch, it's easy to envision the 49ers incorporating plays in which McCaffrey is the primary read in a passing progression.

Is this McCaffrey the same guy we saw at his peak?

I don't think McCaffrey is a difference-maker like a runner would be. The superstar model of him produced 372 rushing yards over expectation, for an average of 0.8 RYOE per attempted run. The model suggests he gained nearly a full yard more per run than an average back would gain with the same blocking.

The ensuing three seasons have not been as productive as before. He has generated minus-14 RYOE with 243 tracked attempts, suggesting he has been as productive as a league average back on his carries. He will take over the lead back role from Jeff Wilson Jr., who ranks eighth in the league on a per-rush basis.

It is possible that the 49ers have taken a step back in their running game with the addition of McCaffrey. Samuel had generated 42 RYOE on 24 carries. If they use McCaffrey as something close to their every-down back, they will return Samuel to a role that is less valuable than the one he was in before.

It's likely that we'll see the 49ers mix and match backs and retain a role for Samuel and Wilson in the offense, but that they'll use McCaffrey more than Wilson. It's not a problem if he touches the ball 12-16 times per game, but it's a problem if he's expecting to touch the ball 20-26 times.

During that time, he played more than 90 percent of the offensive snaps in both seasons. He played 1,928 offensive snaps over the course of those two seasons. The only other running back who had more snaps than the second-generation back was the Cowboys' EzekielElliott, who had 1,745 snaps.

Only Chicago's David Montgomery had more than 1,300 snaps in the two subsequent seasons of 2020 and 2021. At the time, McCaffrey's workload in terms of snap count was an enormous outlier and only looks even more ridiculous now. He played 85% of the offensive snaps for Carolina before the trade.

It's impossible to attribute injuries solely to workload, and we know that backs who have smaller workload can also get injured, but I think the best chance of staying healthy for an entire season is playing less often. We've seen him create opportunities for multiple players on his roster, even though he's had to change backs in and out of the lineup because of injury. Wilson should be involved in the offense. In October, Tevin Coleman was given snaps by the Niners. They used a third-round pick on Tyrion Davis-Price and should get back Elijah Mitchell, who was their lead back for most of the year.

I think this will be a rotation where a lot of guys get touches. The next question comes from this.

Why does Shanahan keep investing in running backs?

I did not say the answers would all be satisfying. I don't understand why the coach wants to make expensive additions to the team. For the past 25 years, the Shanahan offense has created valuable backs out of mid- to late-round picks and free agents.

During his time as the coach in San Francisco, we saw this effect. The 49ers signed Jerick McKinnon to a massive, over-market deal in free agency, only for him to lose two seasons to knee injuries after he returned. Coleman averaged 3.5 yards per carry in his first season with the team.

I don't think we can blame him for the injuries, but his picks at the position have been a disaster. The 49ers traded up in the fourth round to get Joe Williams. They used a third-round pick in 2021. They don't have a path for Davis-Price to play with McCaffrey.

The most productive backs have all been bought on the cheap. Breida was an athlete. Before Shanahan arrived, Mostert was signed off the Chicago practice squad as a special teams player. Wilson was not drafted by an NBA team. Mitchell was selected in the sixth round. If you look at what has worked for the 49ers on the field, it's been the backs who were the forgotten men.

It's often suggested that running backs are interchangeable and that teams can plug in any one of them. It's not fair. There are more good running backs in the league than there are opportunities for running backs to get touches.

Other backs on San Francisco's roster simply don't have a level of receiving aptitude like that. There are backs who can catch passes available in free agency or on the bottom half of rosters who could have been acquired for far cheaper and still offered passing game help. Booker was a good player for the Giants last season. While Duke Johnson is on the Buffalo practice squad, three other players are capable of catching the ball and wouldn't cost much to acquire.

Is it better for the 49ers to have spent four picks on him than it is for him to be better than all of those guys? Can the Niners afford to keep him? The answer may be dependent on whether they think of him as a running back at all.

What could happen with McCaffrey after the season?

When the 49ers made this deal, they only had a few million dollars in cap space, so it was easy to get a trade done and fit McCaffrey under their cap. The restructured deals created short-term cap space when they were trying to trade for Deshaun.

McCaffrey had $7.4 million of his base salary converted into a bonus. The bonus was spread over four years for cap reasons. San Francisco is on the hook for $690,000 this year because he only had a little over $1 million in base salary on his deal.

That will change next year. There is no guarantee that he will get any money left on his contract, but he is due some money in the next four years. He wouldn't get a lot of money on the open market if he hit free agency after two years of injuries. It's not likely that McCaffrey will get more than $6-7 million per year on a new deal, with the running back class set to include Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and others.

The 49ers have flexibility, but they're not in a good spot. They're projected to have about $6 million in cap space with McCaffrey on the books, but that's without new deals for Garoppolo, safety Jimmie Ward and several other key players. John Lynch might allow some of the veterans to move on, but he needs cap space to find replacements.

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After a solid 49ers debut, Field Yates still has Christian McCaffrey as a top five fantasy running back.

They'll pay $12 million if McCaffrey is a star. San Francisco would want to get him down on a reduced salary if he fell short of that standard. The 49ers won't want to lose a player after trading four draft picks to get him. The Niners will wait for him to change his mind so they can get more money.

This worked out well for Garoppolo and the 49ers, as it did with others. Garoppolo was stuck in a staring contest while he recovered from shoulder surgery and the trade market cratered, but the two sides agreed on a pay cut in August that gave Garoppolo the chance to make a lot of money if he regained his starting job. It's possible that he will be willing to negotiate a new contract because of his longstanding relationship with the Shanahan family and the possibility of staying in the Bay Area. This is probably a one-and-done deal.

The financial math for the 49ers could be improved. I've talked about how important his role is in the game. Is it possible that the 49ers see him as a receiver instead of a running back? It's easier to give him those initial touches when he's a runner than when he's a receiver because he's still learning the system. I don't think he's going to be running a lot in San Francisco.

One of the highest-paid backs in the league would be McCaffrey. Midtier money is what a receiver gets. It wouldn't have as many guarantees as the three years and $36 million that the two players got paid in free agency. The case could be made that he should be treated like a receiver if he is targeted seven times per game and is efficient in the passing game.

Is it possible that Shanahan can afford to pay that amount? Samuel will have a cap hit of $8.7 million next year, but will have a cap hit of $28.6 million in four years. Trent Williams is the highest paid offensive lineman in league history. Kittle is making a lot of money. The Niners will probably reduce Bosa's cap hit as part of his extension because he is in his fifth year. Brandon Aiyuk is going to get a significant raise next year. It's cash and cap space that could be applied to more vulnerable spots on the roster if the 49ers wanted to keep McCaffrey.

There is a team that ignored the cap and won the Super Bowl. Discuss the 49ers' rivals.

Aren't the 49ers just doing what the Rams did?

It is not possible to say yes. The Rams added veterans to their roster last year and have traded picks for players both last season and during Sean McVay's tenure. This isn't the same thing as the 49ers. There are a few differences between what the 49ers are doing and what the Los Angeles Rams are doing.

Some of the additions the Rams have made haven't been traded. Los Angeles did not have to give up any draft picks to sign Beckham and Waddle.

When the Rams have a first- or second-round pick, they always try to get players who play premium positions in the league. Matthew Stafford, Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins, Von Miller, Marcus Peters, and Jalen Ramsey are some of the players that have been pursued by the Rams.

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