Autumn Covid numbers peak at lower levels – but flu cases are on the up

The current wave of Covid-19 cases in Britain seems to be peaking at a lower level than in the past.

Scientists warn that a further wave of the disease could sweep the nation before the end of the year. Professor Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University said that the data needs to be monitored all the time.

Covid case numbers have fallen in five English regions, as well as in Northern Ireland and Scotland. The prevalence of the disease has gone down for children.

There has been a fall in the prevalence of cases over 70 years old. Woolhouse hopes that will soon be mirrored by a fall in hospital stays.

Longer-term forecasts are less comforting if the short-term prospects of avoiding a new wave of Covid-19 cases look promising. Professor Andrew Lee said that there were around 300 Covid-19 variant in existence. Different populations have differing levels of immunity to Covid-19 It's hard to predict how waves will behave.

Scientists warn that the nation could face a parallel flu epidemic this winter, one that could be caused by low immunity levels in a population that has lost protection during the Pandemic. Last week, it was revealed that flu cases had increased in England.

Professor Francois Balloux of University College London was able to calm the fears. The good news is that the vaccine that is being given is well matched to the strains that have begun to circulate in the population. It should hold down hospitalisations.

Woolhouse said that predictions about diseases like Covid or flu need to be treated with care. When we had high levels of the Delta variant of Covid-19, experts predicted huge waves of the disease would sweep Britain in the autumn. It didn't happen.

The nation was struck by a completely new variant, Omicron, which affected an unprecedented number of people. There are new sub-variants of Omicron and they are being seen as a serious threat. It is not very common in the UK.

Scientists agree that the risk of a completely new variant could appear at any time. Governments will be able to ride the wave if Covid stays mild for most people. The response will be different if we get a more severe variant. That is still a risk.

The prospect of a lethal new variant appears to be the greatest fear of scientists, according to Balloux. He said that unless something terrible happens and a deadly new variant appears, things should be better.