Kathy Hochul's reelection strategy is not working as expected. Hochul spent the summer pounding Republican opponent Lee Zeldin as an anti-abortion, Donald Trump supporter and is now learning that crime and the economy are more important to voters than abortion rights. Just weeks before the election, the New York governor is promoting her efforts to create jobs and fight crime. Hochul says in the new ad that she deserves to feel safe. I will continue to work until you do. Similar themes have played out across the nation as Republicans in Senate races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have found success with putting more emphasis on crime, as well as in Oregon's open race for governor that has become surprisingly close. Zeldin, a congressman from Long Island, holds almost daily press conferences outside subway stations in New York City to highlight violent crime and he argues that Hochul's failure to address it is aided by millions of dollars in ads from his campaign and a super PAC. The race is close after two decades of statewide dominance in New York. The Siena College poll shows Hochul with an 11 percentage-point lead over Zeldin, down from 17 points a month ago. The prospect of a remarkable upset in the blue state was raised by a poll that gave Hochul a 4 point lead.
According to the poll, crime is the most important issue for voters.
Hochul's advisers say the governor's closing message will emphasize her actions since taking office.
State Democratic Committee Chair Jay Jacobs said in an interview that he thinks these are important to voters. He can complain about something. That is something he does very well. She makes something. It is all about that.
Hochul has mostly focused on abortion rights and Zeldin's support of Trump, which included voting against certifying the 2020 election and recent revelations that he messaged a former White House chief of staff to try to influence the outcome. Zeldin is one of the Republicans who insists that general election voters are more concerned about crime and affordability.
It was a tough-on-crime message that helped Rudy Giuliani win the New York City mayor's race in 1993 and propelled Eric Adams to City Hall.
"No matter how many times she utters 'Orange Man bad,' it doesn't matter when you don't feel safe in your own neighborhood or public transportation or you can't afford to eat, work and play in New York," New York City Council Member Joe Borelli
Zeldin downplayed the former president's endorsement earlier this month. There wasn't a press release from the Republican's campaign. Zeldin said it shouldn't have been news because he's supported him before.
Hochul and Democrats are changing their approach. They want to hit Zeldin on his Trump loyalty and anti-abortion stance, but also on her record of crime and the economy.
They expect her to continue her 20-year streak of outmaneuvering Republicans seeking statewide office, while acknowledging that it may be a single-digit victory for Democrats.
Bruce Gyory, a Democratic strategist in New York who had advised several governors, said there was more focus on the Democratic constellation in September. There has been more focus on inflation and economic uncertainty in October.
Beyond Albany, what happens to Hochul is important. New York has as many close House races as any state in the nation and Democrats are counting on her to drive voters to the polls.
The governor's race isn't the only one. Three of the highest profile, must-WIN House races in the country are in New York. The strength at the top of the ticket is essential in order to lift them to victory. She continues to talk about abortion access.
Two new ads were released by her campaign.
In a new ad, Hochul says the stakes in the election couldn't be higher. Lee Zeldin thinks abortion should be banned. He voted to repeal New York's common sense gun laws. It's not who we are as New Yorkers, but that's who he is.
There are pictures of Trump and Zeldin in a mailer from the State Democratic Committee.
According to Zeldin, voters are more interested in pocketbook issues and crime than the former president.
Zeldin said last week that New Yorkers want him to focus on the issues that are related to them and their families. They are thinking about their own break in the state.
Zeldin's challenge is twofold, first, to get the Republican base to support him, and second, to get the Democrats to back him.
Hochul has stressed that abortion rights is still a critical issue for voters, and she has pressed that her administration has a "laser focus" on fighting crime, whether it's toughening bail reform laws passed in 2019?
Hochul said shootings and homicides are down in New York this year.
She told the room full of new officers and their families that areas of success had been achieved.
Hochul needs to find a balance between hitting Zeldin and highlighting her own record, according to some Democrats. She succeeded Andrew Cuomo who resigned in scandal in August 2021.
Money will be spent on messaging in the next few weeks. As of last week, Hochul had $10.9 million left in the bank, while Zeldin had 888-492-0s of 888-492-0s.
One downstate Democratic communications professional said on the condition of anonymity that no one knows the real Kathy Hochul beyond the Democratic box-check stance. She has the lion share of dollars, but she doesn't have the roar. She would benefit from being more herself and showing her agenda in the home stretch.
Zeldin needs to get at least 30 percent of the vote in New York City, a Democratic stronghold, and win the suburbs and upstate New York in order to win.
Zeldin was down 59 percent to 37 percent in the city and with a slight lead in the city's suburbs, but the poll gave him hope. He had a higher percentage of support upstate than Hochul.
The Democrats said the poll undercounted them.
While the race is tight, it's not as dire in terms of his closeness as two of the polls that came out, which I would say were poorly selected audiences.
Hochul told reporters that her message was focused on Zeldin's record and that he voted against gun-control laws and federal measures to bolster the economy.
Hochul was on Long Island. They don't like the fact that he voted against legislation that allowed me to fix things. He didn't like infrastructure. He didn't like the bill. What did that do? We were able to go to New York. Voters are shocked when they find out he is running.
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