Everyone is trying to figure out what is happening with the US economy as the new year approaches.
Many top US execs and economists don't agree with President Joe Biden's claim that the economy is strong. Only one-third of CEOs think a US recession will be short-lived, according to a recent survey.
The Fed's own research warns that the Fed's recent interest rate hike could lead to a rise in unemployment.
According to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, the probability of a recession within the next 12 months is higher than it was in July. There's a chance that the US economy will go into a recession within a year, according to a statistical model.
Things are not too bad at the moment. A lot of people are waiting. It's going to be a bad year in 2023.
The average person would be affected by a recession in many ways. The trend is about to reverse because workers have been enjoying a historic amount of bargaining power. Costs for businesses will increase as a result of the Fed raising interest rates. If they haven't already done so, they're going to cut staff if they haven't already done so. Credit card and loan debt will become more expensive as a result of the interest rates.
Gary Friedman, the CEO of Restoration Hardware, said "anybody who thinks we're not in a recession is crazy." Here's what 10 of the nation's top business leaders think will happen in the next five years.
At a shareholder meeting in July, the world's richest man predicted that the US would have a mild recession for 18 months. In the month before, Musk told the company to stop hiring and cut 10% of their staff because of his bad feelings about the economy.
In October, Musk told investors that North America was in good shape, but he was against the Fed raising interest rates.
He said there was more deflation than inflation. If you look out the front window, the Fed's decisions don't make sense.
After the shipping giant reported disappointing earnings in September, Subramaniam told CNBC that he thinks we're on the verge of a global recession. The company has announced a number of cost cutting measures, including closing 90 retail locations and five corporate offices.
The luxury furniture boss said that anyone who thinks we're not in a recession is crazy. The downturn is just getting started and he predicted troubled waters for the next year to 18 months.
The veteran is a little more positive. In October, Nassetta said he believed the economy would have a soft-to-bumpy landing. He told investors in July that he feels good about the future of the hotel giant.
Nardelli told Fox News that the US is the least prepared to face a recession he has ever seen.
He is the most loud of the economists. He said in June that there was a 20% to 30% chance of a harder recession. He predicted the downturn will be less severe than he had warned. In his company's most recent earnings report, he stated that people's savings are up in comparison to this time last year. He stated that credit card borrowing is stable.
He said that the extra money they have in their checking accounts will be gone by the end of the year. You have inflation, higher rates, and higher mortgage rates. Those things are out there and it's not a problem. Future numbers will be strained by it.
The head of the investment firm warned that the global economy was facing significant challenges.
During the company's third-quarter earnings call in October, he said that factors such as equity markets being off recent highs, central banks raising interest rates, and instability in the Middle East were all to blame for the company's performance in the last few months.
You have to expect that there will be more turbulence in the future. He told CNBC in October that it doesn't mean that we have a difficult economy. There is a chance that we will have a recession in the United States.
In late September, the billionaire CEO of Citadel said that he thinks inflation has peaked and that there will be a recession. It's a question of when and how difficult. We have a hard landing at the end of the year. It's absolutely true.
Sewing's firm is based in Germany and he was able to prevent the resignation of his government.
"We will not be able to avoid a recession in Germany," Sewing said.
Even though Microsoft is taking a hit, people still call the company recession-proof. In late October it laid off nearly 1,000 workers. Microsoft's stock has fallen 29% since the beginning of the year.