Now that he is the starting point guard for the New York Knicks, what will his statistics look like? We should look at what he did for the Mavericks last season.
The best season of his career took place in Dallas. As a full-time starter for the first time, he set new personal bests across the board with 16.3PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.9RPG, 1.2 3PG and 0.8 SPG while shooting 50.2 FG%/37.3 3P%/ 84.0 ft% in 31.9
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The circumstances with the Mavericks are so different from what he will be with the Knicks that those numbers don't reflect what we should expect from him.
One of the most ball-dominant players in the NBA was playing with Brunson. The Mavericks ran through Luka Doncic, who led the league in usage percentage for the second year in a row.
When Doncic was on the court, Brunson was more of a finisher than a creator. The production was capped because he didn't have the ball.
His production took a major shift when Doncic wasn't around. In 17 regular season games without Doncic, he averaged 20.4 points per game, 7.5 points per game, and 3.8 points per game. This is the best starting point for what the numbers will look like with the Knicks.
The Knicks had a 28.7 USG% and Julius Randle was the primary offense creator, but this season they should have a new one. He will be tasked with setting the table and setting up easy shots for his teammates but he will also be the player with the ball in his hands that can look for his own shot.
When he is really aggressive in his offense creation, we can see the high-end of his production potential. During the first three games of the playoffs, the Mavericks relied on Brunson as their offensive engine. He averaged 32.0PPG (50.7 FG%, 41.2 3P%, 88.0 FT%), 5.3 APG, 5.3RPG and 2.3 3PG in 39.4 MPG while leading his team to a 2-1 series lead over the Utah Jazz.
While no one expects Brunson to average anywhere near this type of scoring volume for a full season, the fact that he could do so in the playoffs against a strong defensive team reflects very positively on the scaleability of his scoring
Even though he had an unsustainable hot shooting streak for a few games, he still took and made the same shots he normally takes, and did so while maintaining the same percentages.
What will Brunson's statistics look like this year? I expect him to average about what he did in his regular season games last season. It's a strong stat line, but it's not as aggressive as what he did in the playoffs, because the Knicks have other talented offensive players with him.
It'll be part of Brunson's job to make sure they are fully utilized, as neither of them are likely to average close to Doncic's usage.
We know that if the team needs him to carry the load, he has the ability to ramp up into even more elite production.
In my preseason fantasy basketball rankings, I have him in the top 25 and I think he will have a special season in New York.
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