Satellites have a higher chance of colliding with space debris due to reduced density in the upper atmosphere.
Increasing levels of CO 2 in the Earth's atmosphere will cause a decline in air density at high altitudes. The drag on objects in the upper atmosphere will be reduced and the lifetime of space debris will be extended.
Satellites cost billions of dollars and a collision could cause major problems if they are damaged.
The first realistic projection of climate change in the upper atmosphere was presented in the study. Research into higher altitude scenarios is more limited than studies into the lower and middle atmosphere.
Over the last two years, the number of inactive and active satellites has increased by 50% In the next decade, many companies are planning to add thousands of employees. Satellites burn up in the lower atmosphere once they are decommissioned because of atmospheric drag.
Satellite operators should make sure that their satellites are deorbited within 25 years, but reduced atmospheric density will cause errors in planning and calculations, according to current guidelines.
The middle and upper atmospheres have been cooling. There are practical implications for the drag on objects at those altitudes due to the decline in density. There is a greater risk of collision with satellites and other space debris with reduced drag the lifetime of these objects is extended.
A model of the whole atmosphere up to 500 km altitude was used to model changes in the upper atmosphere in the future. She found that even under a moderate future emissions scenario, the predicted average cooling and decline in upper atmosphere density is twice as strong as it has been in the past.
The changes in the climate in the upper atmosphere over the last 50 years are a result of CO 2 emissions, according to Cnossen. It is important to understand and predict how climate change will affect these regions, especially for the satellite industry and the policymakers who are involved with setting standards for that industry.
The long-term decline in upper atmosphere density is making the problem of space debris worse for satellite operators. I hope this work will help to guide action to control the space pollution problem and ensure that the upper atmosphere remains a usable resource into the future.
The European Space Agency says there are more than one million debris objects greater than 1 cm in size.
Changes in the Earth's magnetic field are expected to cause the ionosphere to change. Understanding the distribution of electrons in the ionosphere is important to correct errors that are introduced into satellite-based sea level measurements.
Over South America, the southern Atlantic Ocean, and western Africa, the biggest changes in electron count are expected. To control for effects on satellite-based data applications, further studies should monitor these changes and build up a picture.
The research is in a journal.
More information: I. Cnossen, A Realistic Projection of Climate Change in the Upper Atmosphere Into the 21st Century, Geophysical Research Letters (2022). DOI: 10.1029/2022GL100693 Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters
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