As Europe heads into winter with a rise in covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths, officials are concerned about a possible U.S. wave, where key numbers have been falling for weeks but where patterns have tended to follow European trends during the Pandemic.

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In Europe, covid cases are increasing.

AFP via Getty Images

Last week, officials from the World Health Organization and the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control warned of evidence suggesting a new coronaviruses wave in Europe.

According to the latest weekly report from the ECDC, there has been a widespread increase in all key Covid indicators, which the agency expects to continue in coming weeks.

In the UK, Covid hospitalizations have risen rapidly in the last few weeks.

In recent weeks, Covid cases, hospitalizations and deaths have trended downward across most of the U.S.

The amount of virus found in wastewater samples in parts of the Northeast and Midwest could be an early warning that a new wave is on the way.

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a variety of omicron spinoffs are gaining ground, which could help fuel another wave.

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The U.S. lags behind other countries when it comes to vaccinations. Only around 5% of eligible people have taken up the offer of a booster shot that targets both the original coronaviruses strain and the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron variant, even though they were introduced at the start of September. Half of adults don't know anything about the new shots, according to a poll. More than 30% of Americans haven't completed a primary round of immunizations against Covid, according to data from the CDC. Less than half of people who have received a vaccine have gotten a booster shot, and less than 40% have gotten a second booster.

What We Don’t Know

How bad is the European outbreak? Data is hard to come by and unreliable in the early stages of the Pandemic. In Europe and North America, rapid and lab Covid testing has been scaled back. Case numbers are not likely to represent the true extent of the outbreak. Efforts to monitor the emergence and spread of variant are hampered by this. Figures for hospitalization and deaths are potentially misleading as health facilities may routinely test upon admission and catch infections that are unrelated to the problems that led them to seek care in the first place.

What To Watch For

There is an infectious disease. There will be an outbreak of Covid and flu this winter. The United States has urged people to get vaccinations against the disease. In most of the country, early increases in seasonal flu have been reported, with southeast and south-central areas reporting the highest levels of activity. According to the CDC, seasonal flu kills between 12,000 and 52,000 people each year in the US.

Tangent

Flu and other respiratory illnesses are expected to be high this winter. The healthcare system has struggled to replace workers who quit in droves during the Pandemic as a result of the convergence.

There is a wave of covid infections, but not deaths.

There are data that are useful now.

There is a winter surge of Covid.

Live updates on the coronaviruses.