How the World Will Know If Russia Is Preparing to Launch a Nuke

NATO is holding a nuclear strike exercise called "Steadfast Noon" this week to practice using fighter jets. Russia is expected to conduct its own nuclear drills later this month in response to NATO exercises.

There are no indications that Russia is preparing to launch a nuclear strike, according to officials from the United States and the UK. The signals the global community has to draw on are robust. If a nuclear attack were imminent, the world would probably know about it.

The White House takes any nuclear weapons or nuclear saber-rattling very seriously. We don't have any reason to change our strategic nuclear posture, nor do we have any indication that Russia is about to use nuclear weapons.

Last week, Jeremy Fleming, director of the UK's GCHQ intelligence agency, said, "I would hope that we will see indicators if they went down that path." He said there would be a good chance of detection.

The US's nuclear weapons program is similar to Russia's, according to Eric Gomez, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A lot of transparency is provided by the international and bilateral arms control treaties. No country is an open book. Everyone has secrets that they keep. If you keep satellite or aircraft sensors trained on key spots, you can catch it if something moves.

In comparison to the US and other world nuclear powers, Russia's intercontinental missiles and submarine-launched missiles are always deployed and in a state of readiness. When you think of a nuclear bombing, you probably think of a city or an industrial area. Thetactical nuclear weapons that are more immediate concern in a Russian strike on neighboringUkraine are smaller and meant for more contained attacks. Nuclear weapons are known as "battlefield" or "non strategic" and have never been used in combat.

Russia's nuclear bombs are stored in military facilities and need to be loaded into either an aircraft or a vehicle for deployment. According to the research organization Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, the global community knows the location of about a dozen nuclear weapons storage facilities around Russia. The US has intimate knowledge of most of the sites because it worked with Russia to improve the physical security of the repository.