It has become difficult to keep up with all of the latest coronaviruses, unless you are a real-life virologist.
They were named after Greek words. It's easy. There were a few short Star Wars-esque characters. It's fine
In the last few weeks, COVID has been subjected to a lot of BA.4.6s and BQ. 1.1s. There is a new sub lineage called XBB.
Most Americans don't have enough time to comprehend that many numbers and letters. It's easier to just tune it out. I will call you when there is another wave.
There is a chance that there may be.
BA.5 peaked in July. The reported U.S. cases have plummeted since then. The rate has returned to pre-BA.5 lows, despite the fact that too many Americans are dying of carbon dioxide each day. There is a moment of calm.
Omicron has begun to splinter, which is potentially dangerous for the most vulnerable among us.
We might be entering the next phase of the epidemic. Thanks to layers of immunity from vaccinations and prior infections, we will almost certainly never go back to the days of thousands of deaths per day.
Over the last two years, we have come to expect Alpha, then Delta, then Omicron to be the dominant variant.
Scientists are seeing a bunch of worrisome Omicron descendants arising simultaneously but independently in different corners of the globe, all with the same set of advantages that help them dodge our existing immune defenses and drive new waves of infections.
According to Tom Peacock, a researcher at Imperial College London, there is an unprecedented amount ofconvergent evolution happening right now.
Everything is going back in the same direction despite the fact that things started off in different places. People's immunity is implied by the fact that they're getting the same mutation.
He told Nature that there is an optimal way for a variant to look this season.
What is optimal for the coronaviruses isn't always optimal for us.
The World Health Organization is monitoring 300 post-BA.5 sublineages and experts are most concerned about two O.
Eric Topol, founder of the Scripps Translational Institute, said last week that the XBB and BQ. 1.1 are two of the most important variant.
What's the reason? They are variations of the word "escape" XBB, B.Q.1, and their ilk now boast at least six changes in just, compared to earlier sublineages that had a few advantages. They are now considered to be the "most anti-evasive” strains ever tested.
It's troubling for two reasons. The elderly and the immunocompromised don't produce as strong an immune response after an illness or vaccine. onoclonal antibody treatments help fill the gap and shield them from serious illness.
Lab experiments show that the remaining antibody therapies don't work against XBB and B.Q. 1.1, which is why many of them were abandoned. The FDA warned last week that people with compromised immune systems may no longer be able to take Evusheld. People at high risk for severe COVID are likely to be even more vulnerable after the new escape variant takes off.
Increased spread is the second cause for worry. The experiments show that XBB is more immune evasive than other infections. Less vulnerable people might not get seriously ill if they catch B.Q.1 or XBB, but vaccinations and prior infections may be less likely to stop them from catching it in the first place.
The more the virus circulates, the more likely it is that people will get seriously ill.
The fact that the virus is evolving in the same evasive direction everywhere at the same time suggests that most of the world should be prepared for impact sooner rather than later. There are many escape variations to choose from.
The next wave is being built overseas. In the United Kingdom, BQ. 1.1 infections are doubling every week, a rate of growth that far exceeds other leading sublineages; overall daily cases have doubled over the last month as well. Germany, France and Belgium are all experiencing rapid B.Q. 1.1 growth, with the latter country facing a wave that is on track to match or even exceed its Omicron BA.1 wave.
Across Europe, from Italy to Austria to Sweden, COVID hospitalizations are already shooting up as the weather cools, and while B. Q. 1.1 is outcompeting its rivals, it still has a lot of room for growth. It's likely that numbers will get worse before they improve. Two of the first countries where it has achieved dominance are Singapore and Bangladesh.
Overall COVID cases are going down in the U.S. XBB and B.Q. 1.1 haven't really established a foothold here yet. It's likely that one or both of them will do that in time for winter. It is becoming quite clear that we will see anothervariant wave in Europe and North America before the end of November.
America's latest winter wave won't be as disruptive as its predecessors. Almost all Americans have been exposed to the virus, and both forms of immunity will continue to prevent severe disease and death from cases. Americans will be less protected than experts think they should be.
BQ. 1.1 is a descendant of BA.5. Bivalent boosters are the best defense we have. Less than half of U.S. seniors have received their two recommended booster shots, despite the fact that almost all of them have received their first two vaccine doses. During the various Omicron waves, vaccine protection against COVID hospitalization fell from more than 80% to less than 50%. It is likely to slip further without more evasive variant.
The new escape variant will be more of an annoyance for most US residents. Almost 400 Americans are dying of carbon dioxide each day before they hit. The death count from a bad flu year is three times higher than the yearly figure. We don't know how much death we're willing to accept. How much more should we tolerate this season?
The new escape variant shows us that the virus still has new tricks up its sleeve nearly three years after it was first detected. Omicron is a new variant of Pi. Is this part of the process of SARS-CoV-2 becoming stable? Is it possible to be true at the same time.
There is something going on with the disease. Shay Fleishon wrote on the social networking site that something big was on the way. There were a number of scenarios that we expected to see in the near future. There are positive and negative things. The range is getting larger.
The responsible thing to say is that scientists don't know how to explain things. Complicated maps and charts can be made. Something is different than before. We have no idea what it means.
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