A new report from the Human Rights Campaign and Bowling Green State University shows that the percentage of eligible voters who are lesbian, gay, bisexual, and queer is expected to more than double in the next two decades.
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According to the analysis, 14.3% of the voting eligible population will identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or queer by the year 2030.
In the 2020 general election and this year, approximately 10.8% and 11.3% of voting eligible adults identified as lesbian, gay, bisexual, and queer, respectively.
Younger generations are making up a larger share of the population because they are more comfortable with and supportive of policies like same-sex marriage, according to researchers.
Despite making up only 5.6% of U.S. adults, LGBTQ voters made up a record 7 percent of the electorate in 2020.
The share of eligible voters in key battleground states that support same-sex marriage will likely increase over time, according to the analysis.
Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada and Texas, which all have higher-than-average LGBTQ populations already, are projected to have even higher shares of LGBTQ voters by 2040 than the 17.8% of Americans overall.
The impact of these trends could be huge according to the HRC. The growing LGBTQ+ electorate will fundamentally alter prospects for candidates, ballot questions, and other items put before voters in the future.
Some states will exceed the national average, but other states will continue to have a lower share of LGBTQ Americans than the national average. Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are expected to have an LGBTQ population of between 12% and 13.2% of the electorate by the year 2030. In Florida, for instance, the number of people who are eligible to vote for the first time is expected to increase from 10.5% this year to 16.3% in 2040.
More Republican-led states have enacted policies targeting the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and queer community, including in battleground states tracked by the HRC. Florida has drawn a lot of criticism for its law known as the "Don't Say Gay" policy, which restricts discussions of sexual orientation and gender identity in schools, and has also excluded gender-affirming care from Medicaid. Texas, where the study found 19.9% of adults will identify as LGBTQ by 2040, has also drawn widespread condemnation for a policy investigating parents of children who've received gender-affirming care for child abuse, and the state government has also taken steps like limiting trans athletes in school sports. The governor of Arizona has signed a number of bills this year that target the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and queer community, including allowing taxpayer-funded adoption and foster care agencies to discriminate against same-sex families.
The growth of the LGBTQ+ voting bloc in coming years is being projected.
There is an increase in the number of lesbian, gay, bisexual and queer identifications in the U.S.
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