MIT Professor Says There's a One-in-Six Chance of Nuclear War

Nuclear war has been on a lot of people's minds because these are not chill times internationally.

While verbal and physical nuclear threats have been made, how likely is it that we'll see a real conflict?

Many people have asked me what the odds are of a nuclear war between the US and Russia. Losing in Russian roulette is estimated to be one in six. It's great.

Kaboom vs. KABOOM

Tegmark's argument is based on a David vs. Goliath framework. The professor explores a number of possibilities and their likelihoods.

A major US-Russia nuclear war that might cause nuclear winter and kill most people on earth is his worst case scenario. That's the worst case, and Tegmark has a number of other possibilities that could happen instead.

"'Libya,' 'Korea,' and 'Finland' refer to scenarios where one side wins and the other loses," he wrote.

There is an 80 percent chance that NATO will take military action against Russia and a 70 percent chance that Russia will retaliate.

You get a one-in-six figure if you keep those percentages.

Geopolitical Shituation

Tegmark's guess is as good as anyone's.

There is no scientific model for human nature. Nuclear war is something that happens. The professor is trying to remind us that we need to press a button.

There is a one-in-six chance of a nuclear war.

Nuclear warsimulation would kill five billion people.