"Early retirement" is a strange way to describe a 44-year-old's acceptance of a new government role, but for Marran it feels a lot like that. Vlisluureamet, the Baltic state's foreign intelligence service, which was at the forefront of assessing the threats and capabilities of a revanchist Russia, will no longer be headed by him.
Marran tells me from his modest office in a modern building in the Rahume district of the country's capital that it's been seven years. I calculated the number of CIA and MI6 directors I have met during my term as a director. The most senior foreign intelligence chief is me. I'm probably the oldest.
The border with Russia is 183 miles long. Roughly twice the size of New Jersey, with just 1.3 million people, it has long occupied a frontline position in the new Cold War with Moscow. It catches and convicts Russians every year. Since the new Cold War began in February, the Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, has been an outspoken champion of Ukraine, and her government has spent nearly 1% of the country's gross domestic product on security assistance. In ways seen and unseen, Estonian intelligence has been instrumental in helping the Ukrainians outmaneuver the Russians on the battlefield.
One former high-ranking U.S. intelligence officer said thatEstonia punches above its weight on Russian affairs. There is a lot of respect for Marran and his service. Directors of other allied services are not allowed to invite him to their homes when he is in the U.S.
Marran was appointed director in January 2016 at the age of 37, having held virtually every role in Estonia's defense sector prior to that, from desk officer to permanent secretary of theMinistry of Defense. It has meant a singular focus on espionage in the area. The larger intelligence services have Russia houses. We are a Russian house. The majority of what we watch is our neighbor.
Marran has seen multiple Russian wars in the Middle East, North Africa, and now Europe, as well as a flurry of Russian assassinations and sabotage operations on NATO soil. He is more of a hedge fund manager than an intelligence chief and he is clean-shaven. David Petraeus, the gaunt four-star general, Leon Panetta, the jowly, bespectacled egghead and walnuts farmer, and now Bill Burns, with his nimbus of white hair, are some of the notable CIA directors. This is the first time I have seen Marran without a tie on.
He is leaving three years shy of his allowed decade to become chairman of the board of the State Forest Management Center. Marran thought he would never get the corporate job, but ended up getting it. He knew he would regret it if he didn't accept the job.
In the private sector, most people in the world's second oldest profession continue in the same vein as they did in the public sector. They are members of law firms, private intelligence firms or corporate due diligence shops. It seems odd that a flat woodland nation doesn't require a lot of upkeep in that area. I will be in charge of a third of the territory of the country, and more than half of the forests.
Marran has been in charge of keeping an eye on every place but Estonia for a long time. Maybe he thinks he has accomplished his mission after warning the West of Putin's plans. He feels vindicated by the events.
He says that they tried to inform their partners. Some of them thought that we were just screaming about Russia. I don't know if they believed us or not, but everything is on the table now.
The entire existence of Vlisluureamet has been overseen by Marran for almost 30 years since it became independent after the fall of the Soviet Union. The collective trauma of the not-too-distant past, such as the deportations of grandparents or parents, the suppression ofEstonian culture, and the ever-present fear that someday, if they are not careful, is something that I have never met a person who doesn't consider If the war in Ukraine is important, so is the war in Estonia.
Marran thinks that the Russian people can put the puzzle pieces together in a better way than any other people in the world. Some of our partners have re-educated us. It's now more of a discussion and comparing notes. It's a pleasant feeling.
The West is more unified than it has ever been. The man is located in the Kremlin. New incentives or ideas that are crazy from the European point of view have aided us.
Up to a point, this is true, but Putin still wields influence with far-right politicians in Europe. Europe relies on Russian oil and gas. Putin wants to get rid of European consensus on sanctions and his own isolation by making them expensive. He might still be able to win this war. The price of energy is going to go up even more this winter, now that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia have agreed to cut production.
Marran isn't too worried. Europe will weather an especially cold winter, according to him. It will be difficult and expensive, but we need to survive because it is a war situation. He likes the idea that every Russian tank destroyed in Ukraine is one less Russian tank that could be used to invadeEstonia. Real-time actionable intelligence on Russia's war machine is provided by Vlisluureamet. We just give the pieces we collect to the Ukrainians.
The moral obligation behind this reflexive assistance is tied to a unique form of survivor's guilt. Few people think that Putin could invade another NATO member in the near future. He pulled as many as 24,000 soldiers from Russia's western flank in order to replenish personnel losses in Ukraine. NATO is more alive to the day one requirements of its collective security clause than it has been in the past. President Biden said that the U.S. military would defend NATO land. This includes Estonia, which has been a member since 2004, and is considered a "tripwire" state in a Russian attack.
Marran said that the world's largest military alliance is in good shape. Thanks to Putin, NATO is set to expand, with Sweden and Finland expected to join. He calls it an internal NATO lake because of the twinned memberships. NATO will ring the Baltic Sea, which contains some of Russia's most strategic ports.
Every year, Vlisluureamet publishes an unclassified report filled with insights on Russian military maneuvers, intelligence services and cybersecurity operations. The reviews are read by people at the CIA. The chapter titled "Russia is Ready for War" was published two weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine.
Vlisluureamet has been more positive about the chances of a Russian war of conquest than other intelligence services in NATO. The Biden administration's reluctance to equip Ukraine with the heavy offensive Western firepower it now sends in waves of billion-dollar security assistance packages was the result of that assessment. Even though the White House has its limits, it has refused to dispatch long-range missiles out of fear that they might be used to hit targets inside Russia.
Marran doesn't think the U.S. barrier is a good idea. We should limit the weapons systems to 80 kilometers or 40 kilometers, that's what I think the West should do. NATO arms are being tested in war. We want to giveUkraine what they want. We will get there eventually. We are a long way from where we were in February.
In the year of Russia's initial invasion and occupation, the dividends of that advice are now visible on the battlefield. More than 4,000 square miles of terrain have been captured by the Ukrainians in the last several weeks, not only in the northeast but also in the south. The first major population center to fall to Moscow in the beginning of the war was Kherson. Despite the annexation of Luhansk, the army is losing ground to the Ukrainians. One of Putin's prize projects was partially collapsed yesterday.
The louder the chorus of voices gets, the more they want to negotiate with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently been urged by everyone from Pope Francis to negotiate with Moscow. The majority of Ukrainians are against a ceasefire that would give their land to the invaders.
Marran cautions that advising Ukraine to negotiate is not in the best interests of the country. intel services give correct information assessments to our leaders We don't think we should push Ukraine to any negotiations because we don't want to send a message to Putin that things will go his way.
What are the worst-case scenarios being advanced in the West, such as Putin using a nuclear weapon to stop or reverse the advances of Ukraine? At a New York Democratic event, Biden said, "We have not faced the prospect of armageddon since JFK and the Cuban missile crisis." It is said that a cornered Putin is more dangerous. Marran can see it in a different way. He will have more options to deal with the West if we see him in the corner. I believe that is what he wants. He could stay in the corner.
Marran isn't worried about the consequences of the nuclear option for Estonia, it could be worse than other European countries. He exhibits calmness. All the major services are following the situation in Russia around the nuclear depots. NATO is prepared to deal with that situation. China and India will have a very strong response to a nuclear bomb by Russia. If he does that, he'll lose his friends.
The assessment of Ukraine's defensive potential was closely followed by that ofUkraine. When the bombs started falling, many in Kyiv at high levels of government refused to acknowledge that Putin was going to do it. The Russians would be in a bad spot. Maybe one day Kyiv will be the destination capital for Western intelligence officers who want to learn more about Ukrainian tradecraft.
Marran sees similarities between the post-Soviet trajectory of Estonia and the one of Ukraine. He says that before the annexation of the peninsula by Russia, Ukraine was cooperating with the Russians. It is easier for them to understand the Russian way of doing things because they are still familiar with the people. They might have a better experience than we do. There will be a long line of intel services who want to learn from Ukraine after the war is over.
The war will end.
Marran doesn't hesitate to say thatUkraine is going to win. It is an independence war for Ukraine. They are motivated by the fact that it is not just a regional conflict. He doesn't know when that victory will come.
Putin can prolong the fighting by using raw manpower. Marran says that his father was fond of the expression Nado, Fedya, nado. It means "it's necessary, Fedya, it's necessary," but it also means stubbornness in the face of adversity.
The Russians are like this and should not be underestimated. The easiest targets for Ukrainians will be the first conscripts who arrive at the war zone. Nado, Fedya, nado will help the ones that survive the first months learn how to do the job.
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