Russian President Putin has ruled over his country with an iron fist for more than two decades, cracking down on dissent while cementing his control over the levers of power. People who've opposed the Russian leader have died. Novel challenges to Putin's authority have arisen from Russia's failures.
In an interview with Insider, a top Russia expert who served in the Office of Policy Planning at the State Department from 1999 to 2001 and as a national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council from 2004 to 2006 said that his grip on power is not as strong as it was
Putin's war hasn't ended well. In August, the Pentagon said that there could be as many as 80,000 Russian casualties. Putin recently announced a partial military mobilization, as well as various stop-loss measures, but things are not going well. Local resistance to the draft has led to tens of thousands of Russians leaving the country.
The annexation of four Ukrainian regions was announced by Putin last week despite the fact that Russia does not have complete control over these regions. Ukrainian forces have regained control of these areas. According to recent reports, members of Putin's inner circle have begun to criticize the failed invasion, which can be dangerous and even deadly.
The situation looks bad for Putin and the Russian army appears to be incompetent.
He didn't have to invade Ukraine in February, but he made the decision that this was the right time to do it.
The war didn't go as planned for the Russian leader, but that doesn't mean he's going to lose his job. "He still projects the image of someone who's self-assured, even though he didn't mention it in his speech," said Stent.
The effectiveness of Putin's efforts to squash dissent has been shown. Navalny is the most prominent critic of Putin. Putin signed a law criminalizing spreading so-called "fake news" about the military shortly after the invasion started.
The problem is that Putin has made the system more repressive.
"If you want to have change in Russia, you need to happen in Moscow and St. Petersburg," she said.
The recent decision by theOPEC+ alliance to cut oil production at a time when Russia's war in Ukraine is causing an energy crisis seems to point to Putin's ongoing influence. The Saudis and other members of the coalition support Putin. There are a lot of countries that still support Russia.
India and China, which tend to side with Moscow on the global stage but haven't taken an overly supportive stance with regard to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are wary of what Putin is doing.
Both China and India have concerns about the war in Ukraine, as evidenced by the fact that Putin met with both of them. Modi spoke to Putin on the phone and said that the current era is not an era of war.
The possibility of countries offering full-throated support for Russia's war in Ukraine could be mitigated by Putin's repeated nuclear threats.
Many leaders, officials, Russia watchers, and military experts in the West have expressed concerns that the Russian leader might resort to the use of nuclear weapons because of the situation in Ukraine.
Jake Sullivan, a national security advisor, said in September that there would be catastrophic consequences if nuclear weapons were used.
According to a number of analysts, Putin's nuclear threats are a ploy to intimidate the West and push it away from continued support for Kyiv. Weapons that have played a key role on the battlefield have been provided by the US to the Ukrainians.
The nuclear threats are not helping Putin vis--vis the West.
She said that there has been "exaggeration of the imminent threat."
"I don't think anyone thinks that the use of a tactical nuclear weapon is something that's going to happen soon," said Stent, emphasizing that Putin wants to wait and see if the mobilization works before taking escalatory steps.
That doesn't mean that Putin's nuclear threats can't be completely dismissed.
Some of our political leaders have said we need to take this seriously after Putin said he wasn't bluffing. The administration is telling the Kremlin that if they do something like that, there would be very serious consequences.
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