Simulation day is whacky. Thousands of college football worlds could be created in the weeks leading up to the College Football Playoff selection. Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia are going to reach the playoffs, so there are a lot of them that look like college football landscapes. Before you know it the Syracuse Orange are in the College Football Playoff. The Predictor foresaw it 10 times in the 20,000 simulations it ran on Thursday. The Allstate Playoff Predictor is based on uncertainty at the core of the football power index. We're using the unpredictable nature of college football to find some of the craziest simulations that our model could come up with. The first thing we're going to do is start with the orange. There is a simulation called 3789CFP.
Teams: Syracuse, Alabama, Ole Miss, USCSyracuse Orange: Welcome to the CFP!
On the other side, this is not normal. Is Syracuse going to the playoffs? Ole Miss would've been a nice story if the Orange hadn't ruined it.
They just have to win. Syracuse has a record of five wins. It's highly unlikely that it will win out, but that's exactly what happens here. A Power 5 champ? It will be in the playoffs.
USC and Alabama are both 13-0 in this sim, so there is only one spot up for grabs. Minnesota and Texas lost three times each, so they are out of the picture.
Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC title game. Georgia tends to get in over 11-1 Ole Miss. I do, that's right. It doesn't. The Predictor doesn't give us any more information, so I'm free to editorialize and say that Ole Miss lost by four points to Alabama, and that the Georgia lost by three to Alabama.
There is a simulation called 281CFP.
Teams: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Alabama
Two teams from the same conference are tired Three teams from the same conference are playing in the playoffs.
Do you think people are excited about an expansion of the playoffs? Wait until you see people other than the Big Ten.
How come we're here?
Penn State defeated Michigan and Ohio State in order to win the conference title. Michigan lost to Penn State in the last game of the season. Ohio State finished with a 10-2 record.
How do the Ohio State football team make it here?
It's not a threat since Texas won the Big 12 title. Oregon is a three-loss conference champion. It's down to Ohio State, a two-loss Georgia team and a winner of the Atlantic Coast Conference.
What is the reason for the Ohio State Buckeyes?
Georgia and Clemson both lost against other teams in the playoffs. The committee decided to go with Ohio State.
There is a simulation called 2 CFP803.
Teams: Utah, USC, Alabama, Michigan
Utah and USC both earned berths to the playoffs in 23 simulations, which is a huge coup for the conference. Utah lost to Oregon before beating USC in the conference title game.
How do Utah and USC get into the playoffs? There was a lot of chaos elsewhere. Texas is a three-loss Big 12 champion, Georgia is a two-loss non-champion and Clemson is a two-loss Atlantic Coast Conference champion.
Would a two-loss champ get in over a two-loss champ? It is possible. The committee was swayed by the University of Utah.
There is a sim called 12400.
CFP Teams: Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio State
The SEC can put three teams in the playoffs with a lot of combinations.
Kentucky will win out and win the SEC. Tennessee has an 11-1 record as a non-division champion. Both teams beat Georgia, which is where they lost.
The committee looked favorably on those SEC non-champions over the likes of a two-loss champion, a four-loss champion, and a two-loss champion. It's possible that the bulldogs are defending champ.
There is a sim number 833.
CFP Teams: Oklahoma State, Penn State, Alabama, Clemson
This exercise has been difficult on the Big 12. It's no longer possible.
Oklahoma State lost to Kansas, but still went on to win the Big 12 title. Is it enough for theCFP.
Alabama is in the SEC even though they lose two games. Georgia lost to Mississippi State and is not a champion. USC is the one-loss champion of the Pac-12.
Why not the team from USC? A top 25 team would have had a 12% chance to go 12-1 against Oklahoma State, while the same team would have had a 25% chance to go 12-1 against USC. The committee agreed with the Cowboys.
Lauren made a contribution to the article.
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