According to new polling from Morning Consult, Republican voters and men are more likely to vote in the November elections than Democrats are.
In Wilson, Wyoming, people voted in the Republican primary election.
A majority of voters say they will vote in November, the same percentage who said they were certain to vote in the last election.
Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats, and Independents are also more likely to vote.
More men than women plan to vote, and Republican women are more likely to vote than Democrats, according to a recent poll.
White voters are more likely to vote than Black voters, Hispanics, and other minorities.
The likelihood that voters will go to the polls increases based on how much education they have, with 75% of voters holding a postgraduate degree, compared to 74% of voters with a bachelor's degree and 62% of voters without a college education.
The share of voters planning to turn out also goes up with age: Only 46% of 18- to-34-year-olds are definitely voting, compared to 59% of those ages 35-44, 73% of those 45-54 and 84% of voters ages 65 and up.
Independent voters are more likely to vote than they were a year ago. Democrats are less likely to say they will turn out compared to last year. The Republican share dropped by one percentage point. A majority of voters who voted for President Joe Biden in November said they would turn out now. The enthusiasm of voters with postgraduate degrees has gone down.
According to a FiveThirtyEight polling average, Democrats are slightly ahead of Republicans when it comes to the generic congressional ballot, which polls voters on which party they would support in the election. As of October 2, Morning Consult polling shows that Democrats have a bigger advantage than Republicans, with 49 percent of voters favoring Democrats versus 46 percent for Republicans. More Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November compared to Republicans.
Republicans and Democrats will fight for control of Congress on Tuesday, November 8, in the middle of a number of high-profile gubernatorial races across the country. Republicans would need to pick up only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats would need to pick up at least 10 seats in the House to flip that chamber, according to polling. There are at least two governors running for reelection, one of which is seen as a contender for the GOP presidential nomination in four years.
Republicans had been favored to win out in November, reflecting a broader trend that the president's party usually fares worse in the midterms. Democratic strategists hope the Supreme Court's landmark abortion ruling will turn out the party's base and convince Independents and moderate Republicans to back Democratic candidates in order to shore up abortion rights. The high-profile races that have taken place so far in the run-up to November suggest that abortion is driving voters to the polls, with a Kansas ballot measure on abortion in August heavily favoring protecting abortion rights and Democratic candidate Pat Ryan winning a competitive special congressional election in New York, which It's too early to know how much of a factor abortion will play in the upcoming elections. According to a Morning Consult survey, the economy is still the most important issue when it comes to voting, with over 75% of respondents saying that is very important.
The midterm turnout looks to reach historic levels again.
Democrats hold the edge on the Generic Ballot in the upcoming midterm elections.
Do voters want either party in Congress? Thirty eight.
If Republicans win the House, Senate, what will happen? The Washington Post has an article about it.
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