Even though he is one of the most powerful people in the world, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not likely to be invulnerable on his 70th birthday.
The invasion of Ukraine was driven by Putin's desire to regain control of Russia's old empire. He compared himself to Peter the Great.
He expected a quick victory, hoping to oust the Ukrainian government, and paint NATO as ineffectual.
Putin was forced to scale back his war plans after Ukraine put up a fierce fight.
In the last few weeks, a monthslong stalemate has come to an end as the Ukrainians push forward to take back territory from the Russians.
Russia's military has failed to achieve any of its objectives after eight months.
The situation forced Putin to announce an unpopular draft that caused an exodus of military-age men from his country and undermined his hold on power.
There are domestic protests against his efforts and the Russian media is acknowledging how bad the war is.
European capitals used to hold that Ukrainians had no chance of victory, but that has changed thanks to Russian defeats.
Putin has been left with no choice but to threaten to deploy nuclear weapons, which has left him further isolated.
The expansion of NATO towards Russia's borders was intended to be counteracted by Putin. His invasion caused a surge in support for the military alliance, with the neutral nations of Sweden and Finland abandoning their previous position to join.
Even in his plans for the day, Putin's status was obvious. The Moscow Times reported that in the past, Putin had met with leaders from nations like China and Japan.
Despite the 70th birthday of Putin, his plans were distinctly provincial, with visits lined up from a few leaders from post-Soviet states.
It will be difficult for him to avoid being seen as the leader of an isolated nation.