According to a Wells Fargo note, a massive options trade could have been behind the surge in the S&P 500 on Wednesday.
In a Wednesday note from Wells Fargo's head of equity strategy, Chris Harvey detailed a bullish options trade that hit the tape right around the same time that stocks hit their lowest point of the day.
The mid-day pop to the S&P 500 was probably caused by the Greeks of the trade.
20,000 S&P 500 calls expiring in October with a strike price of 4,500 and 14,000 bullish option contracts expiring in March with a strike price of 4,300 were purchased in the specific trade. There were 48,000 call options expiring in January that were sold.
The stock market will rally over the next few months, according to the trade. The S&P 500 was down at noon.
Some traders don't know if the option trade was the real reason for the reversal in the stock market on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow index saw an upward revision after the US dollar moved lower, and that's when the rebound happened.
The main catalyst for the S&P rebound was the pull back off highs by theUSD. The option trade's delta component was small. Murphy said that it didn't have a big impact on the rally.
There is debate about whether Wednesday's massive option trade helped spark the reversal in the stock market, but there seems to be growing consensus that a bottom in the stock market is still elusive.
Before the Federal Reserve pivots its monetary policy and a stock market bottom is reached, markets will need to experience more stress. He wants the CBOE to surge above 40 to be more comfortable with the idea that a Fed pivot is imminent.
The fear gauge was close to 30 on Thursday, down from a high of 35 a week ago.