For the first time in the history of the World Series, there are 12 teams competing.
With an extra round to start the playoffs and the possibility that this year's Fall Classic extends to a Game 7 on Nov. 5, it will be a very short October stay for some.
Will the Dodgers rule the NL or will the Braves make another deep run? Can anyone stop the Yankees and Astros from playing in the ALCS? Which teams are most likely to lose this weekend?
The experts give you everything from odds for every game and a predicted date of each team's last game to the best and worst-case scenarios for the World Series hopefuls. Power ratings are used to determine the most likely outcomes in 10,000 simulations.
Power ratings are used to determine the most likely outcomes in 10,000 simulations.
You can watch the wild-card round on Friday and Sunday.
Jump to a team:
TB | SEA | TOR | CLE | NYY | HOU
PHI | SD | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD
Most likely, this weekend.
There is a baseball team in the city ofTampa Bay.
A wild card.
The opponent of the wild-card is the guardians.
The world series odds are 1.9%.
They will play their last game on October 9.
The starting pitching is better than you might think, and they could stay around longer. Jeffrey Springs went from a mediocre relief pitcher to a very good starter in just one night, Drew Rasmussen has been consistent all season, andShane McClanahan was a Cy Young candidate for three quarters of the season. All three of them finished with sub-3.50 strikeouts. Tyler Glasnow came back from Tommy John surgery in September. If there's a need for a fifth starter, there's a playoff-proven veteran. The depth of the pitching staff will allow the team to survive a long October.
They fail to score runs, so what can you do to send them home? Only Cleveland hit fewer home runs in the playoffs. Brandon Lowe, who hit 39 home runs last season, is out for the year with a back injury. Since he was acquired at the trade deadline, David has not hit a home run. You have to wonder where the firepower will come from, since Yandy Diaz does get on base and Randy Arozarena has been a doubles machine in the playoffs.
In the last weekend of the season, the Astros swept the Rays at home and then lost two of three against them on the road. It's difficult to glean much from that, especially in the last series, when the players were resting for the playoffs. The Astros are able to pitch with theRays. They could be a separator in a potential game. The second-best defensive outfielder in the majors this year was the Rays. The Astros hit a lot of flies. One of the best defensive center fielders in the game could play a big role at the park.
There is a baseball team in Seattle, Washington.
A wild card.
The BlueJays have a 42.4% chance of making the playoffs.
The World Series odds are 2%).
They will play their last game on October 9.
They had to refuse to lose. Any can happen. It's true to the blue. Do you believe? After Cal Raleigh's pinch-hit, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth, 3-2 count, walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth, it's possible that destiny is on the SeattleMariners. TheReliever is built for October and deep. They'll need to score some runs and to do that, they'll have to wait for the return of sensation Julio Rodriguez, who missed the last two months of the season with a back injury.
How rookie Julio Rodriguez became the Mariners' $470 million man.
Alden Gonzalez »
The pitching will need to carry them, but it looked a little tired down the stretch. George Kirby was a model of consistency until he had a bad outing. There were three mediocre starts byRobbie Ray. Paul Sewald has been a home run-prone closer in the last few months. The entire staff will need to bring it because the Mariners don't score enough runs.
The Astros won 12 of 19 games against Seattle, but they only scored 8 runs. The Astros dominated their division rivals in the six games started by Verlander. Five of those starts were won by Houston. Verlander has allowed three runs in three outings against Seattle. It's going to be important for Seattle to take advantage of the days Verlander isn't pitching. The M's have three pitchers with a 5.40ERA against them this season.
Next week is when they should be around.
The ClevelandGuardians are a group of people.
The 3rd seed is the AL Central champ.
The wild-card opponent has a good chance of making it to the next round.
The World Series odds are 3.0%.
They will play their last game on October 15.
TheGuardians have drawn comparisons to the Royals for their style of play, which is contact hitting, speed, defense, and a dominantReliever. The top three setup pitchers in front of Clase have all been excellent, and he is as good as any of them. They're hard to hit, they strike batters out and all of them are good at home runs. Since the beginning of July, the pen has been even better, with the second-best average in the majors behind the Dodgers. If you get a lead through five or six the Guardians will usually hold it. The Cleveland Indians can match up with any team in October, because they have a good relief corps.
The Indians started the season with the youngest team in baseball. There is a person named Jesse Rogers.
The lack of power is what could send them home. You can win the playoffs if you hit home runs. Do you not want to buy that? In last year's playoffs, the team that hit more home runs went 25-2 10, with two losses and 10 games where they hit the same number. The Royals did not hit a lot of home runs in the last two years, but they did hit them in the playoffs. It would be great to see theGuardians scratch and claw their way to the World Series, but more likely they will have to power up.
The only American League team that put the ball in play more often than the Astros was theGuardians. The Indians went first to third on a single and stole third base in the majors. The formula for success in October is to put the ball in play and run the bases aggressively. The Astros are the second best defensive team in the playoffs. The caught- stealing percentage of Martin Maldonado was below average. The series should not turn into a battle of wills, as the group needs to get on base and run.
The Toronto BlueJays are a baseball team.
A wild card.
The Mariners have a 57.6% chance of getting through to the next round.
The World Series odds are 4.3%.
They will play their last game on October 16.
There will be eight teams playing this weekend. Four will make it to the division series. You can watch the wild-card series on ABC.
Friday's schedule:
TB-CLE: 12 p.m. ET on ESPN
PHI-STL: 2 p.m. ET on ABC
SEA-TOR: 4 p.m. ET on ESPN
SD-NYM: 8 p.m. on ESPN
They could stay longer if the offense went off. The BlueJays haven't produced the same offensive numbers as they did in 2021, but that's because the league is not as offensive. It's still as good as any in the game when this offense is clicking, with a mix of power and high average hitters. Bo Bichette hit.403 in the month of September. Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are two of the better hitters in the game. George Springer has been a great performer in the playoffs, hitting.279/.350/.547 with 19 homers in 63 games.
Before you finish reading this, what can send them home? Jordan Romano has been pretty good as the closer, although not lights out with six blown saves. It has been difficult to get to him. St. Louis and Milwaukee were the only teams in the playoffs that had a better bullpen. The lack of depth is an issue and, more than any of the other playoff teams, the Jays will need their starting pitchers to pitch deeper into games.
The BlueJays' three best starting pitchers combined to give up just five runs and walk two batters against the Astros this season. It's a positive sign that none of those outings took place past May 1. Berrios has struggled since. The Blue Jays expect him to be an elite starter if he gets on track. The Astros can't hang with the BlueJays on the offensive side. They will probably need three top-of-the- rotation arms to shut them down.
The pack should be better for the entire month.
The New York Yankees are a baseball team.
The second seed is the AL East champ.
The ALDS opponent is the Rays/Guardians.
The World Series odds are 15.6%.
They will play their last game on October 25.
All of our coverage from the historic season can be found here.
There was a magical night of 60.
He could get a free agency worth $375 million.
All-time, where this season is ranked.
It's unfair, but it feels like so much is riding on Gerrit Cole's performance, especially since the Yankees didn't expect him to be as good. The Yankees went home when Cole failed to pitch in the wild-card game against Boston. He leads the American League with 32 home runs allowed and 16 of them were off his four-seamer. He needs to find a way to keep the ball in the park.
They could go home early if opponents pitch around Judge and the rest of the lineup doesn't hit him. Even though Judge hit nine home runs and drove in 22 runs, the Yankees averaged just 3.61 runs per game. Teams walked him 13 times in May, 15 in June, 17 in July, 25 in August and 30 in September. The Yankees can't expect a single man to carry them all the way to the World Series. In seven games against the Astros, they hit.151.
The Astros famously beat the Yankees in the regular season, winning five of seven. If you're a Yankees fan, you'll be happy to know that all seven games were decided by three runs or less. The Yankees didn't throw a ball with a lead. Both of their victories came as a result of come-from-behind rallies. The Astros kept Judge mostly in check, holding him to a.148/.258/.373 slash line. Judge's bat needs to come to life. The Yankees will have to play a brand of baseball that is mistake free.
The most likely time to play is in November.
The Houston Astros are an American baseball team.
The American League West champ is the No. 1 seed.
The ALDS opponent is the Blue Jay's.
The World Series odds are 18%.
They will play their last game on Nov 2.
Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, the two veterans from the World Series champion who continue to get booed around the league, do serious damage at the plate. One of Altuve's best seasons was his OPS+ that was equal to his best season. The second half was the best for Bregman in a long time. If they're getting on base in front, Altuve and Bregman have been great in the playoffs.
After two lost seasons, Houston's ace picked up where he left off.
There is a person named Jeff Passan.
The bottom of the lineup doesn't help. The Astros don't get much from their catchers, Martin Maldonado and Christian Vazquez. There was a rough season for Yuli Gurriel. The other trade acquisition has a batting average of under.200. The lineup doesn't have the depth of other Houston teams. It could be a quick exit for the big four if they don't click.
If MLB's two best teams meet in November, most of the Dodgers' pitching plan remains a mystery, but one thing has already been declared by manager Dave Roberts: Three-fourths of their postseason rotation will be made up of young pitchers. All of them have in common. All of them are lefties. The Astros feasted on left-handed pitchers this season, thanks to a right-handed lineup led by Bregman and Altuve. Their best hitter was a left-handed hitter. It could make the difference in a close game. The Astros could claim their second World Series title against the Dodgers if they can score early.
Most likely, this weekend.
There is a baseball team in Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Dodgers.
The NL has a third wild card.
The Wild-card opponent is the Cards.
The World Series odds are 4.9%.
They will play their last game on October 9.
The next generation of stars will be able to reach some of baseball's most famous offensive feats when superstars like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are done playing.
A future watch.
They could stay around longer if they put in the right structure. A big part of Philadelphia's near-collapse down the stretch has been the team's poor relief pitching. Brad Hand is questionable for the playoffs due to an injured ankle. The high-leverage mix will include David Robertson. The other solutions have emerged, and they include converting a starter to a relief pitcher and a starter to a relief pitcher. The Phillies might be able to get over the hump with the help of struggling Seranthony Dominguez.
They could be sent home by the staff of the Cards. The pitching staff in St. Louis has a low strike out rate. Even on the road, theCardinals don't yield a high home run rate. The pitchers are supported by the best defense. While they aren't the most longball dependent offense in the playoffs, the Phillies are third highest in homers. If the team doesn't combine for two or three bombs per game, they will have a hard time turning the score.
The Washington Nationals proved they don't need to be deep or well-rounded to beat the Dodgers. If the top of your roster is elite, you just need your best players to do their job. In 54 plate appearances against the Dodgers,Harper and Schwarber combined for a 1.315 OPS, but Nola and Wheeler combined to allow nine runs in 1723 frames. There are four and catcher J.T. Realmuto. They will need them to do most of the work to defeat L.A.
The San Diego Padres are located in San Diego, California.
The NL has a second wild card.
The Mets have a chance of making the playoffs.
The World Series odds are 1.3%.
They will play their last game on October 9.
One of the biggest trades in baseball history was the move of Juan Soto to San Diego. You have to know what to know about the deal.
It means a lot for the Padres.
There are grades for Padres and Nationals.
How long could they stay? After the trade that sent him to San Diego, he went into a downward spiral. While his San Diego numbers are down from his pre-trade numbers in Washington, he has quietly been rising over the past few weeks. There was a lot to do with the Nationals winning the World Series as a 20-year-old in the playoffs. If Soto has a big October, the hand-wringing over his post-trade play won't happen.
They could be sent home before you finish reading this, because the Padres' rotation carried them into the playoffs down the last few months. It wouldn't have mattered if Hader hadn't straightened himself out. Hader finished strong after a terrible start to his Padres career. If Hader comes back, what will happen? San Diego will be finished. You can say the same thing about every team, but not every team saw the relief ace pitch that Hader did in August.
The Padres struggled against their Southern California rivals this season, losing 14 of 19 and being overwhelmed by 62 runs. They need to make sure Yu Darvish pitches as often as possible and Sean Manaea doesn't pitch against the Dodgers in order to beat L.A. They will need the two of them to be at their best. At the start of August, they thought they were going to be locked down. They will need contributions from many other people. They may need to summon some confidence.
Tim and Eduardo look at all of the Wild Card games.
Next week is when they should be around.
The St. LouisCardinals are a baseball team.
NL Central champ.
The Wild-card opponent is the Philadelphians.
The World Series odds are 4%.
They will play their last game on October 15.
As his career comes to a close, here are some of our favorite stories about him.
Pujols joined the 700-HR club.
How Pujols got his "joy" back »
What it's like watching the G.O.A.T. »
Mentoring in his final season »
The stars of the past and the stars of the present could keep them around longer. Albert Pujols has had a lot of big October moments. After what Pujols has done since the All-Star break, the next chapter in this fairy tale would be a stirring playoff run. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are two of the NL's best players and have been featured by the Cards. A hot player can carry a team in the playoffs. It might not matter if Arenado and Goldschmidt go off.
Picking the wrong playoffs rotation could send them home. During their first go-around running the Redbirds, the staff has tended to push the right buttons, but it will be difficult to put together a playoff rotation. Jack Flaherty has been on the rise since the acquisition of Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana. Adam has been struggling, but he is Adam. The club's most consistent regular season performer is Miles Mikolas. There are at least five decent options in St. Louis, but it's difficult to differentiate between them for the best possible match up.
The Dodgers are the kings of speed. Their offense was the most productive in the sport against 95 mph pitches. This rotation profiles are not like that. In the 80s, he uses a big curve and throws a couple of pitches. Montgomery uses a lot of changeups andcurves. The same can be said for the man, who doesn't have a lot of power with his pitch. Flaherty and Mikolas don't throw as hard as they could. The best way to keep the Dodgers' hitters off balance is to use the types of arms mentioned.
The New York Mets are a baseball team.
The NL wild card is the fourth seed.
The Padres have a 63.6% chance of getting through to the next round.
The World Series odds are 5.3%.
They will play their last game on October 15.
Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer returned to peak form in both excellence and duration. No matter who the opponent is, the Mets will be heavily favored to win any game in which deGrom and Scherzer are able to dominate into the late frames. For most of the season, Scherzer has been the starter, but he hasn't usually gone past the sixth. DeGrom is entering the playoffs in a rough spot. Would anyone be surprised if they went to another level?
Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have power problems. The Mets had a balanced offense all season. They are the least reliant on home runs. Base hits become harder to hit during the playoffs. Alonso and Lindor have been reliable sources of power. The pair have combined to drive in over a third of the runs the Mets have scored. New York doesn't want them to go cold at the same time.
The Mets are imperfect, but they have what it takes to take down the Dodgers -- pitchers who can single-handedly dominate an entire series. Out of the rotation, deGrom and Scherzer can do that, as can the rest of the team. It will require both deGrom and Scherzer to pitch on short rest, though deGrom's injury history makes it unlikely that he will pitch more than 3 outs. No one said it would be hard.
The New York Mets have a chance to advance to the second round of the playoffs.
The Atlanta Braves are an American baseball team.
NL East champ.
The NLCS opponent is the Philadelphia/Cardinals.
The World Series odds are 12:1.
They will play their last game on October 24.
The teams with the most star power will be sorted by the end of the century.
The 30 MLB core is ranked.
They could stay around longer if the relief falls into place the way it did last October. The Braves are entering the playoffs with a more stable rotation outlook than a year ago, so Brian Snitker shouldn't have to rely on his fireman as much. Raisel Iglesias has allowed one earned run in 27 outings since he joined the Braves, but even if he does, Atlanta's relief corps has been hot of late. Collin McHugh, A.J. Minter, and Dylan Lee have all been excellent. There could be a lever for Snitker to pull if Tyler Matzek can find consistency.
What could be done to get them home before you finish? This isn't to make fun of him. He had a great season in Atlanta. He leads the NL in saves and is on a good run. He isn't the shutdown hammer he was during his prime, and the Braves are such a complete team that there isn't much else that could be an issue.
The Braves and Dodgers have met in back-to-back NLCS and they seem poised to square off again. The Braves are close to matching the Dodgers' depth and balance. The separator could be in the middle of the field. Three of the Dodgers' most important back-end relief pitchers are either lost for the year, Craig Kimbrel, or recovering from injury. The Braves have a clear advantage in the back end of their relief corps.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are located in the state of California.
NL West champ.
The Padres/Mets will play the NLCS opponent.
The World Series odds are 31.6%.
They will play their last game on Nov 2.
Only one World Series title has been won by the Dodgers. What does that say about their legacies?
There is a person named Alden Gonzalez.
Depth is what makes them the team to beat in all of baseball. It's difficult to remember a time when we didn't pencil the Dodgers in for a playoff spot before the season started. In the playoffs, depth isn't as important as it is in the regular season. The Dodgers are much more than just about depth. The team with star power like this has a talent advantage over everyone. The run differential indicates that they were a little unlucky.
The term "Achilles' heel" has become a cliché in sports. We might have to change it to "L.A. closer" if the Dodgers don't do well. You might say that their L.A. closer is the lack of a quality third corner, like in the NBA. The Dodgers have run roughshod over the majors this year and have a lot of impact talent in the organization. They have an uncertain end-of-game situation because of the struggles of Craig Kimbrel. It's difficult to comprehend.
If MLB's two best teams meet in November, their biggest advantage is the fact that Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman are on their team. The Dodgers' top-of-the-lineup trio is what distinguishes them from the rest. The combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and base running that those three possess is rare.
Revenge is an intangible thing. When the Dodgers lost the World Series to the Astros, Betts, Turner and Freeman weren't with them. A few others were. The Astros have changed a lot over the last five years but beating them on this stage would be the ultimate payback.
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