No one has been able to make space-based advertising a reality since the Apollo era. A constellation of about 50 satellites, costing $65 million all in, could shine ads to every corner of the Earth for months, according to a new study.
It doesn't mean they should. Let's focus on the latter for now.
The case presented by the Russian researchers at the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology is supported by the controversy surrounding the Starlink satellites.
The paper proposes to send up a constellation of about 50 satellites at a 12U cubeSat volume. The satellites will always be in the sun as they travel around the Earth.
The sun would bounce down towards the Earth after they deployed large, parabolic reflectors. If they tilted them to best present the sunlight to the area they are passing over, a group of stars would appear from the ground for a few minutes. The image at the top is just for illustrative purposes, and it would be much dimmer in reality.
Depending on a number of factors, they would dethrone after a few months. I asked the researchers for clarification on the lifetime, display length and a few other details and will update this post if I get a response.
There is a diagram of a satellite's reflective footprint and examples of potential displays. The image was created by Skoltech/MIPT.
Considering how visible existing satellites can be, and the fact that they can be arranged already, it doesn't seem crazy to do this. A lot of the paper is devoted to an economic analysis. We could have launched a Nike logo to space in the '90s, but why wouldn't they? The thing needs to be financially sound.
Most of the $65 million cost of the mission is spent on manufacturing, testing, support and engineering, and of course the launch. It seems reasonable.
The income estimates get a bit fuzzy. A complicated equation for determining which cities, in which regions and at what times of the year would make more money suggests that winter is the best time to invest. People stay indoors during the winter. In the tropics and much of south and southeast Asia, winter brings longer nights but nothing like the weather of the north. Some of the most dense populated cities in the world are there.
There are images of possible configurations of satellites into Olympic rings. The image was created by Skoltech/MIPT.
Net income is estimated to be around $111 million over three months and 24 displays, which works out to around $4.7 million per ad. Super Bowl ads are in 4K and full color with sound, but they only last 30 seconds. The money and appetite for stunts is there.
Is anyone interested in seeing ads in the sky? It's almost definitely not. While the novelty of a satellite-based display might briefly fill some with awe, it might quickly turn to disgust. Is that the end? If you will, you'll say a crummy commercial.
It would be a huge risk to have advertisements among the stars. We have sponsored content up on the International Space Station, but that is not the same as this. The International Space Station doesn't blink at you when it passes overhead.
Many companies have considered the possibility for a long time, and the study from Skoltech and MIPT is likely to be one of them. Five years ago the numbers might not have worked, but the idea of the whole operation making money is a new development. It's only one take on the problem, and others may come to different conclusions.
Is there an ad in the stars soon? Anything profitable tends to happen sooner or later in this mad, mad world of ours, so don't be surprised if you hear about attempts being made. Maybe we will outlaw it, but who has the authority? Do they want to be put in that position? A lot of what takes place today is very sci-fi.
You can read the full paper here.
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