Scientists have made a breakthrough in the quest to accurately predict fluctuations in the rotation of the Earth and so the length of the day.
State-of-the-art mathematical modeling has been used to show how fluctuations in the length of the day can be predicted more than a year in advance.
This long-range forecasting is derived from a new atmospheric source for long-range predictability of weather and climate changes, according to the team.
The research shows a link between the shape, size, orientation and gravity of Earth and climate prediction.
The study is published in a journal.
While the changes in day length are small, they are important for applications that require very accurate time measurements, according to Professor Scaife.
The structure and variability of the Earth's atmosphere can be traced back to the role of angular momentum.
The Earth's mass and rotation results in a steady rotation. If the atmosphere speeds up due to stronger winds, the Earth's rotation slows down and this causes the day to be longer.
Until now, the long-range predictability of these fluctuations was not known.
The atmospheric changes have an important influence on regional weather and climate, according to a new study.
The scientists were able to predict signals in the atmosphere that would spread slowly and coherently towards the poles.
Changes in extratropical climate are preceded by signals from the North Atlantic Oscillation and the extratropical jet stream. New findings point to a source of long-range predictability from within the atmosphere that will help us to understand and better predict weather and climate.
The results show that long range forecasts can be driven from within the atmosphere.
More information: A. A. Scaife et al, Long-range predictability of extratropical climate and the length of day, Nature Geoscience (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-022-01037-7 Journal information: Nature Geoscience
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