Hurricane scientists are studying how storms like Hurricane Ian are affected by global warming. There are certain impacts of climate change. Hurricane Ian will add to the evidence as others are being investigated.
Following the destructive Hurricane Ida, which hit Louisiana in 2021, scientists spoke with the website.
According to Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Albany who studies hurricanes, the warming climate has made storms more likely to produce more rain.
When air temperature is warmer, the atmosphere can naturally hold more water vapor, meaning there's more water in the air. The air holds about seven percent more water when it warms up. Since the late 1800s, Earth has warmed by just over 2 degrees. Storms have made it more likely that there will be more rain.
Tang said you are loading the dice.
"You're loading the dice."
Since the 1950s, the heaviest rains have increased over most areas where climate scientists have good data.
Since the beginning of the year, Earth has warmed by some 1.1 degrees Celsius. Hurricane scientists expect rain rates to increase by 10 to 15 percent if Earth warms to 2 C or 3.6 F, which is an increasingly likely outcome. Major flooding occurs during hurricanes.
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Surges of seawater can be pushed into the coast by hurricanes. These surge are caused by a Hurricane. Ida's surge was really strong. Sea levels are increasing as Earth's ice sheets melt. Higher storm surge is inevitable.
A scientist at Colorado State University who studies hurricanes said that the sea is rising. More coastal areas are flooded with damaging saltwater as a result of this.
"Sea level is rising."
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Since the late 1800s, the sea levels have risen. According to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sea levels rose faster in the 20th century than in any previous century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that sea levels will rise by another 1.5 to 2.5 feet by the end of the century.
Hurricanes have caused more destruction and property damage than in the past. Florida, the Texas coast, and other Gulf states now have a lot of infrastructure and homes. There are more targets for the hurricanes. They are causing more damage. There are more people and things in danger.
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There is a question of how the changing climate will affect the intensity of storms. Tropical storm intensity has increased around the world over the last few decades, and there is evidence that storms in the Atlantic Ocean have had an increase in their intensity. The conditions that stoke tropical storms to "rapidly intensify," meaning a storm's winds increase by at least 35 mph in a 24 hour period is of interest to storm researchers.
Tropical storm researchers emphasize the need for more storm observation in order to better understand how climate change is affecting hurricanes.
We need to wait decades to see how climate change will affect the intensity of hurricanes. hindsight is not always right.
It seems like there has been a recent increase in the number of storms that have rapidly intensified. There has been an increase in the number of strong Atlantic tropical storms.
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The uncertainty lies in how scientists observe storms today compared to how humans view storms before 1980. State-of-the-art weather satellites and a fleet of aircraft gather information about hurricanes. The 40-year observation period is much shorter than other climate records. When recent years show evidence of stronger storms, is it because they're happening, or is it because scientists are using more advanced tools?
There are signs that rapid intensification episodes have increased over time. It's possible that this is a sign of climate change charging the ocean and atmosphere. We're detecting faster than 40 years ago. Is this trend real or an artifact?
It's an ongoing question.
Climate change can be teased out with "attribution studies." If there was no global warming, these simulations would show what would happen. Climate change had an effect on an event. The heat waves are used to do these attributions.
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As the climate warms, the oceans are heating up, and they are used for hurricanes. Warming oceans fuel tropical storms as more water naturally evaporates into the air. Fossil fuel burning traps the heat on Earth and the oceans soak it up. The seas will warm past this century.
A graph showing the continuous rise in ocean heat content over the last few decades. Credit: NOAA
The warming of the ocean seems to portend hurricanes. Ida passed through some very warm waters. It isn't that simple when it comes to processes that are relatively short-lived. It's clear that hurricanes intensify faster in a warmer world. Everything else is different. Future storms are made up of an atmosphere and ocean that are interacting. The wind patterns change as well. It's not good for storms if warmer temperatures act to calm the atmosphere.
The warming ocean may lead to more intense storms as the years go by. Climate projections suggest there may be a greater proportion of higher intensity storms in a warmer world. There isn't any evidence that there will be more storms.
The story will be updated with new research.
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