The threat ofimate change was no longer a threat. It's time to say no more. We now have a good idea of its face and demeanor. We see it in hurricanes, floods, storms, and fires. Our daily weather shows it. Climate disruption has altered the background conditions in which all weather occurs: the oceans and air are warmer, there is more water in the atmosphere and sea levels are higher. Hurricane Ian is one of the examples.
Ian was one of the five most powerful hurricanes in recorded history to hit the US and it was the strongest to ever hit the west coast of Florida. That might seem like it's an exception or a coincidence. It is part of a larger pattern of stronger hurricanes, typhoons and superstorms that have emerged as the ocean continues to set record levels of warmth.
Many of the storms of the past five years - Harvey, Maria, Florence, Michael, Ida and Ian - aren't natural disasters so much as human-made disasters, due to the continued burning of fossil fuels and the increase in heat-trapping carbon pollution.
No amount of adaptation can shield [us] from the devastating consequences of the continued warming of our planet
Unusually warm ocean waters have contributed to the increase in the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Hundreds of thousands of people in Puerto Rico are without power after the storm. The storm became Canada's strongest ever storm when it made its way into the open Atlantic. Ian feasted on a deep layer of very warm water in the gulf.
Warming is more than just heating the surface of the ocean; it's also leading to record ocean heat content over time. It means that storms are less likely to hit the cold waters from below. The sort of rapid intensification we see with these storms, where they balloon into major hurricanes in a matter of hours, is a result of it.
The old saw is that we can't link individual hurricanes to climate change. Climate scientists used to think that was correct. They no longer do. The degree to which global warming affects extreme events is attributed to us. The devastating flooding from Hurricane Florence as it made landfall in North Carolina four years ago was as much as 50% greater due to the warmer ocean, according to one study.
Basic physics can also be drawn upon. Warmer oceans mean more fuel to strengthen hurricanes, with an average increase in wind speeds of major hurricanes of about 18 mph for each 1C (1.8F) of ocean surface warming. The destructive potential of these storms has increased since the power of the storm increases roughly the wind speed not only squared but also raised to the third power.
Evidence shows that the storms are getting bigger because of human-caused warming. Larger storms pile up more water and lead to larger storm surge like the 12 to 18 feet estimated for Ian in some locations. Sea level rise adds to the foot of coastal flooding baked into every storm. Yards, not feet, of sea-level rise could be seen if humanity continued to warm the planet. It's a coastal flooding event.
The 20 inches (50 cm) of rain we are seeing across a large swath of Florida is flooding. Simple physics tells us that the amount of water that leaves the ocean into the atmosphere increases when the ocean warms. That means more rain. That is part of the story. The record flooding we saw in Philadelphia a year ago with Hurricane Ida and the flooding we saw with Harvey in Texas and Florence in the Carolinas were both caused by stronger storms.
It is particularly vulnerable to a landfalling major Hurricane due to its wide shallow coastal shelf and low topography. In the past few years, major hurricanes have weakened or left behind a trail of destruction in the area. Ian spared the urban population of a devastating storm surge that would have flooded the homes of millions as it passed to the east.
The luck of the city will eventually end. When the city is at the receiving end of a losing roll of the weather dice, we need to prepare for the inevitable calamity.
Taking all of the precautions we can to spare our coasts from the devastating consequences of sea-level rise combined with stronger, more damaging hurricanes is one way to increase resilience. The consequences of continued warming of our planet can't be mitigated.
The reduction of heat-trapping pollution can be mitigated. In the US and around the world, we have seen some progress recently. The Climate Provisions of the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act are a great start, but they are not adequate on their own for the US to meet its obligations to cut carbon emissions in half by savesay savesay savesay savesay
Congress needs more aggressive climate action to be passed. We need politicians who are willing to support the action rather than being apologists for fossil fuel interests. It is something for all Americans to think about as they cast their votes.
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