The world has been put on edge by Russian President Putin's nuclear threat last week.
Recent days have seen experts and analysts say that the threat of a nuclear war remains minimal.
Paul D'Anieri, a political science professor at the University of California, Riverside and author of "Ukraine and Russia: From Civil", said there are a lot more steps he would take to convince the world of his seriousness.
It doesn't mean that Putin won't use his nukes to sow fear.
Seven months into Russia's war in Ukranian, Putin probably doesn't want to risk World War III. The country has more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, as well as rockets, missiles, and shells.
Putin conscripted hundreds of thousands of reserve soldiers in a move he hopes will give his army a boost on the battlefield after he increased his nuclear threats in a speech last week. The call-up in conjunction with the nuclear threat has narrowed the range of acceptable outcomes that Russia could consider a victory, according to experts.
The war has been turned into a war that Putin cannot afford to lose. It increases the likelihood of him using nuclear weapons.
The renewed threat of nuclear warfare only reinforces what's at stake for the country as it has always had the most to lose in this war.
Ukraine offered an alarmist appraisal of the danger this week despite experts' assessment that the likelihood of a Russian nuclear display is small.
Vadum Skibitsky, a deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence, said in an interview with The Guardian that the probability of Russia hitting Ukraine with a nuclear weapon was very high.
He told the outlet that they would likely target places along the frontlines. Anti-rocket systems are needed in order to stop them.
The military official didn't offer any evidence for his claims, and officials in his organization have been spreading baseless theories. Many analysts think that Putin's nuclear invocation is an attempt to manipulate the US into limiting its support for Ukraine.
"Putin is counting on the fact that we won't go to nuclear war for Ukraine which will get the West to tell Ukraine to negotiate a solution that is basically a Russian victory," D' Anieri said.
Putin hopes that a nuclear reminder from the West will cause them to stop giving aid to Ukraine, which has helped the country stage a series of recent victories.
He thinks he could nuke Ukraine and nobody in the West would want to nuke Russia in a response.
In order to get more support from the country's Western allies who have nuclear weapons of their own, Ukraine has been playing up the danger of nuclear war.
Since the beginning of the war, Putin has talked about Russia's nuclear power, but his most recent threat has led to a more proactive response on the international stage.
President Joe Biden and other White House officials have publicly condemned the Russian president's comments and warned the Kremlin of dire consequences should the country break the global non-use standard of nuclear weapons.
The US is trying to bring the world into the fold of nuclear worry by issuing its own warnings to Russia. There are increasing calls within and outside of the Biden administration to urge China and India to stand up to Putin.
As of Thursday, no signs of Russia changing the location of its nukes or their alert status have been reported.
D'Anieri said that Putin's threats have done exactly what he wanted them to do.
He thinks that Putin is manipulating uncertainty in order to make people in the West more concerned about what might happen than he is.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
