• Normalization is a fact despite HCA Healthcare’s massive scale
  • The slowdown from the post-pandemic slingshot recovery has begun   
  • Medicare sequestration reimbursement cuts will affect earnings moving forward

HCA's stock has fallen 25% this year, lagging behind the payors. In a falling market, not all healthcare stocks are a good investment. Humana, UnitedHealthcare Group, and Cigna are health insurance companies that are trading up. Payors merging with providers could be the reason for this. HCA is the world's largest hospital owner and operator with 182 hospitals, and nearly 2,200 sites of ambulatory care including surgery centers, freestanding emergency rooms, urgent care facilities, and physician clinics.

MarketBeat.com - MarketBeat

HCA Kryptonite Operator

HCA is not only a pureplay healthcare provider, but it is also the only integrated healthcare system that doesn't want to own hospitals. Hospitals are the most profitable part of healthcare. Hospitals in the U.S. are classified as non-profit because of their bad reputation. About 70% of what they bill out is written off. HCA healthcare is one of the most profitable healthcare providers on the planet. HCA generated over a billion dollars in net income despite inflationary pressures and labor costs. After the post-pandemic recovery period, growth is starting to diminish as inflation increases. According to the America Hospital Association, hospitals are estimated to lose $3 billion because of the Medicare cuts.

Thriving after the Pandemic

Hospitals faced steep drops in revenue due to the spread of COVID-19. The emergency rooms ran out of space quickly. Many community hospitals went bankrupt because of the federal government's subsidies. Hospitals saw a spike in business as they were able to resume surgeries and treatments after the reopening. Hospitals got more money on the slingshot because of the demand. For 2022, the return to normal has begun.

The Slowdown Has Begun

HCA healthcare reported its Q2 earnings on July 22nd. Excluding non-recurring items, the Company reported an earnings-per-share profit of $4.21 which was $0.50 better than the analysts' estimate. The year-over-year revenue growth was 2.7% and beat analyst estimates. In the second quarter of the year, adjustedEBITDA fell from the first quarter of the year to the second quarter. The year ago quarter's net income was $4.36 per share. Admissions to the facility fell in the quarter, but emergency room visits rose. Outpatient surgeries fell and same facility inn surgeries fell. HCA healthcare CEO Sam Hazen said, "Many aspects of our business were positive considering the challenges we faced with the labor market and other inflationary pressures on costs." More patients keep their coverage plans as a result of the inflation reduction act. HCA has been able to reduce its labor costs. The volume is expected to return to pre-pandemic seasonal trends.

Can HCA Healthcare Weather the Normalization?

Here’s What the Charts Say

It is possible to see the price playing field for HCA using the rifle charts. The rifle chart bottomed out at thefib level. The weekly rifle chart broke out from the lows and peaked at $222.41 before the buying started to slow down. The weekly 5-period moving average is sloping down with a flat 15-period MA The weekly stochastic was rejected at the 80 band. There is a weekly market structure low that can be triggered. The daily rifle chart has a 5- and 15-period MA that are falling. There is a daily 50-period MA resistance. The daily stochastic is in a state of constant change. The lower bollinger bands are near thefib level. The attractive levels are as follows: $188.63 fib, $184.33 fib, $177.16 fib, $173.72, $170.46 fib, and $167.51 fib.