The United States men's national team turned in a lesson on how to inspire pessimism as they prepared for the World Cup. 55 days before the start of their game against Wales, the team is in a state of disarray, having lost to Japan and Saudi Arabia before a dull draw with them.
The team went into the international break hoping to shore up their roster and build camaraderie, but the combination of injuries and poor performances left them with some difficult choices ahead of the final roster announcement.
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An unrealistic assumption is made in this edition of the Big Board, which examines the current state of the roster and the process for selecting a final 26 man roster. It's best to approach this exercise with that in mind, given that as many as five possible starters missed this camp because of injury and at least four others picked up injuries of varying seriousness during the window in training or games
Here is a look at the situation.
Jump to: Goalkeeper tiers, full-back tiers, Center-back tiers, Midfield tiers, Winger tiers, and Striker tiers.
We're going position by position, from goalkeeper to attack, and sorting the player pool in four tiers based on recent form and Berhalter's preferences.
There are those tiers.
The first tier is a projected starter. There are players who are locks to be on the roster.
The second tier is called the World Cup contributor. The players are expected to be on the roster and contribute on the field.
The roster bubble is the third tier. Being on the 26 man squad and providing roster depth is what I wanted.
This is not the fourth tier. The players who have been around the team won't get a lot of attention.
There will be 26 men in the World Cup squad.
Turner's performance in the past two games was one of the only positives that could be taken away from the games. The first question is who will start? Turner orSteffen will be the number three. EitherHorvath or Johnson.
Turner has played more times for the U.S. than Steffen, has allowed the same amount of goals, and has performed better than anyone else. The GP is a measure of the difference between the expected goals on target and the goals allowed. Turner has cut down opposing teams' goal totals by more than half, even though teams have generated 18.23 xGOT against him. The xGOT is 7.22, with a GP figure of -0.78, which suggests that he has allowed more goals than should have been prevented.
It's not possible to create the exact same circumstances to measure two goalkeepers perfectly, and how much weight to put in that kind of evaluation varies. It's reasonable to believe that Berhalter values expected goals as a way to support his opinions in the past. With such a large discrepancy between how they've performed in the most fundamental part of the job, the choice seems clear.
It doesn't matter if you flip a coin or not.
Turner and Horvath were projected selections.
Dest and Robinson will both start on the right. Robinson played more minutes and created more chances than anyone else on the team, while Dest's ability on the ball is special for a full-back. Both Yedlin and Cannon are likely to be on the final roster based on how frequently they've been called in.
He came on for Yedlin against Saudi Arabia and made a positive impact. His ability to play on the left or right would be a vital asset, and even though he's just 19, he has more appearances in top five European league games than anyone else in the player pool. He probably didn't do enough to get into the final 26 after getting the start against Japan.
Dest, Robinson, Yedlin, and Cannon were projected.
After Richards and Carter-Vickers were dropped due to injury, there was a clear indication of Berhalter's order. It's hard to argue that Berhalter doesn't see Long as one of the two clear starter. Both of them will be on the roster. Will any of the other center-backs be able to oust Long?
It doesn't bode well for Ream's chances that he wasn't called in during this window. He's in good form as captain of Cottagers, who are currently sixth in the league. He is an excellent passer and a left-sided player. The more important attribute is the fact that he plays next to Robinson for Cottager. In the previous 159 days, this team has played two matches together and will have a week together before the tournament. It's not enough to make continuity happen. Ream and Robinson have chemistry that can be used. Ream is more deserving of playing at this level than Long is.
Projected choices: Long, Carter-Vickers, and Richards.
The inability to progress the ball through the middle of the field was a big disappointment. It wasn't easy to watch. Getting Musah back, with his ability to maintain possession, will make a difference, but the drop in quality to De la Torre wasn't a good sign. More needs to be done from McKennie as well. If the U.S. advance past the group stage, he wouldn't be interested in the two friendly games.
Those four, along with Adams, are all good bets to be on the roster. The wild card will be determined by roster makeup and injuries. Depending on how many center-backs or wingers are chosen, there could be six slots here.
Adams, Musah, De la Torre were projected.
The United States played out a stalemate against Saudi Arabia in their last match before the World Cup.
The deepest position on the roster is this one. If healthy, all of the above players will have important roles to play as either starter or impact subs. They've never all appeared in the same game because of injuries.
Morris and Arriola will also be included in the final picks. Unless injuries force the issue, neither of them will be in line for meaningful time on the field.
Weah, Morris, and Arriola were selected.
There were two games, 56 touches and one shot on goal. This international break, the strikers were almost invisible. It's up to the strikers to find a way to make an impact, but at some point it's up to them. There is nothing to be optimistic about. It's hard to see how anything short of a system change will lead to meaningful improvement before November, since it was a black hole during the qualification campaign.
Shouts for Pefok's inclusion were loud before this window. He won the Golden Boot in the Swiss League last year and has four goals in eight games for Union Berlin. The logic is hard to defend when the players who are supposed to fit the system are not effective.
Projected selections were Ferriera and Pefok.
There are three goalkeepers: Matt Turner, Zack Steffen andEthan Horvath.
Chris Richards, Sergino Dest, and DeANDRE Yedlin are defenders.
Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, and Luca de la Torre are in the middle.
The wingers are Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Tim Weah, and Paul Arriola.
The strikers are Jesus, Josh, and Jordan.
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