As a meteorologist, Hurricane Ian is the nightmare storm I worry about most

I have been living near the Texas coast for two decades and have written about hurricanes for years. You think a lot about what will become of your home if the worst happens.

The worst is occurring in Southwest Florida.

During the last 24 hours, the storm has intensified. Ian started to weaken a bit Tuesday after he knocked the power grid offline in Cuba. In the eyewall replacement cycle, the centermost bands of the storm contract and are replaced by a new ring of storms farther out. Ian was not flustered by the process.

Ian was bigger and stronger than ever before, with 155 mph winds, by sunrise on Wednesday. It would become the fifth most powerful Hurricane in US history when it strikes the Southwest Florida coast later today.

Primary threats

Threats from hurricanes include strong winds, storm surge, and inland rain.

One or two of these threats are usually brought by a storm, but not all of them. The Houston area did not see a lot of wind or surge from Harvey, and the city did not see a lot of hurricanes.

Ian will bring all of the threats to Southwest Florida.

The National Hurricane Center predicts a storm surge of up to 16 feet. The large wind field associated with Ian will likely cause the destruction of structures along the Western Florida coast and cause electricity to be knocked out to at least half of the state. Ian will flood the state because it is moving slowly and expected to slow further. The entire Florida peninsula is at risk for flash flooding with a large portion of the middle of the state at a high risk.

What doesn't get submerged by huge waves is at risk of being blown down or flooded by heavy rains.

Nightmare fuel

This isn't hyperbolic. I have a meteorology website in Houston called Space City Weather. "hype-free forecasts for Houston" is the slogan of the site. The "no-hype" guy is me. Hurricane Ian is the kind of storm that scares me the most. It's the kind of storm that can destroy a community for a long time. The beaches are no longer exist. Populations leave and don't return.

Ian's track has bent more eastward than anticipated, but there are no silver linings. The densely populated Tampa Bay region, with more than 3 million people, is close enough to escape a storm surge. Ian is going to put a wall of water into the area. The metro area has a population of over one million. The worst of the surge and winds will be to the south. More people lie in harm's way because of the consequences of pushing so much salt water into this environment.

That doesn't bother me as a forecaster. I'm staring at Ian's satellite imagery and thinking about what might have happened if the storm had hit my community. It's the worst storm I can imagine.

I don't feel well.