A research team from Arizona State University has found that climate change will result in more crops being lost to insect pests and threaten food security.
The study, recently published in Ecological Monographs, outlines the results of considerable data gathered on the physiology of South American Locusts, and demonstrates that species distribution models that consider physiology in addition to temperature may redefine what we can expect to see as climate change continues
Jacob Youngblood is the first author on the study and he said that it was the only one of its kind.
A diverse group of researchers were assembled to combine these approaches. We were able to study the effects of climate change on multiple aspects of Locust biology.
The international team included Youngblood and researchers from the Global Locust Initiative, as well as other people.
There are diseases of old.
Locusts have wreaked havoc on crops and plant life since the days of the pharaohs of ancient Egypt.
The swarms suddenly occur.
Locusts can be shy or friendly. Locust populations can spend a lot of time in a low density population. The brown or green Locusts are harmless on a global scale. The swarms of 80 million Locusts per square kilometer can be formed when the numbers swell to overcrowding.
A swarm of this size can travel up to 90 miles per day and consume the same amount of food as 35,000 people. They are the most devastating pest in the world.
The team studied the South American Locust in order to understand the driving forces behind swarms.
Youngblood said it was the first time he had ever seen a Locust outbreak in person. I realized how big of a problem Locusts can be for local farmers when I saw tens of thousands of them together.
Our research was rare because most research on Locusts has been done on colonies that have been raised in the lab for years. He said that this opportunity would not have been possible without the help of our colleagues in Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay.
The future is being modeled.
Scientists use computer models to predict where swarms will migrate and where crops will be threatened.
Correlative models are the most common modeling techniques. This method has lost its effectiveness due to the unknown variables of a changing climate.
A mechanistic modeling approach was used by the team to gather data. Locusts digest food in different ways.
Predicting how animals will respond to climate change and helping humans survive and prosper despite climate change is going to require in-depth studies of the intricate inner workings of our fellow biological organisms.
The energy to move quickly.
The impact of temperature on locusts' eating habits is one of the factors used for traditional correlation models.
Climate change can't be predicted with just environmental data. Locusts can live in a variety of temperatures. Locusts are able to fill their stomachs with food quicker than they can digest it.
Locusts can eat in a wide range of temperatures, but the ideal temperature for digestion is more specific.
This element was homed in on by Youngblood and his associates as a decisive criterion for a thriving Locust population.
The data was used to model energy gain in both current and future climate scenarios. This new data was used to create a new species distribution model that predicted the spread of locusts.
According to their predictions, locusts will be able to absorb more energy in future climates than they are able to do right now, depending on how warm it is.
The South American Locusts only have two generations per year. Increased energy would cause a shortening of generation times and lead to more swarms. Warmer climates allow populations to grow and develop faster and support more years with three generations per season.
Climate change is predicted to expand the range of the South American Locusts. The models that consider locust physiology predict a smaller range of expansion than typical models, but they also predict an increase in population growth, which leads to more crop damage.
Scientists didn't know if previous models were relevant to the South American Locust because they didn't know if they predicted crop loss from insect pests. The new model created by Younglood was similar to the previous models.
The National Agricultural Technology Institute in Argentina's Eduardo Trumper said that climate change has become a keynote theme in scientific research literature. There is a lot of correlation. The excitement of collaborating stems from the exploration of likely mechanisms involved in the response to a high impact agricultural pest.
Farmers and governments should use this information to plan for the next outbreak. More research is needed, but this approach could help predict the next outbreak.
Collaboration around the world.
The partnership between the Global Locust Initiative and national plant protection organizations, farmers' groups, and universities began at the beginning of the South American Locust upsurge.
"Locusts are part of a complex social-ecological-technological system that requires teams to work together across disciplines, sectors and boundaries," said the director.
A stakeholder workshop was held in Argentina in 2020 to bring diverse participants together to codify what they experience on a daily basis.
Cease said that all of these stakeholders and areas of expertise are critical. Understanding Locust biology and being able to predict when and where there will be an outbreak is a key piece of the puzzle. These models are an important advancement for biology and food security.
More information: Jacob P. Youngblood et al, Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts, Ecological Monographs (2022). DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1550
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