The following essay is covered in The Conversation, an online publication.
Hurricane Ian strengthened into a major Hurricane on Tuesday as it headed for Florida and was on track to bring dangerous storm surge to the coast and flooding rains to large parts of the state. The area around the bay was under an order to evacuate.
Ian formed in ideal conditions, with minimal wind shear, which can tear apart a storm, and warm ocean surface waters, which provide fuel.
Ian is expected to be a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Flooding and storm surge are major risks from Ian and the scale doesn't take them into account.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are studied by me as a meteorology graduate student. Florida is at risk of water hazard this week.
One side of a tropical system is usually larger. The peninsula is expected to be on the " wet" side of the storm. The eastern part of the storm usually has more rain and cloud cover.
While Ian travels up the Florida coast, these outer bands will stretch over much of the peninsula and produce heavy rain for many locations, beginning as early as Monday night for South Florida.
There is a chance of 10 inches or more of rain in the region where the storm makes it's way across the state.
Most of the Florida Peninsula will be affected by Hurricane Ian.
The waters of the Gulf of Mexico will be pushed northward by Ian. Waves on top of the water add to the destructive power of the storm surge.
Strong storms lift up the water in the Gulf because of low barometric pressure. Sea levels are influenced by barometric pressure. Sea levels go down when air pressure goes up. Lower barometric pressure helps lift the sea.
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The water will be pushed in the same direction as the storm moves. There is no way for the water to go inland since land surrounds the Gulf of Mexico.
Depending on how close Ian tracks to the coastline, locations along a large part of the western Gulf Coast could see storm surge heights between 4-7 feet. Up to 10 feet of storm surge could be pushed into the bay. The Florida Keys and South Florida were expected to get up to 3 feet of storm surge.
Due to Ian's northward track, portions of the Big Bend and the Panhandle can expect some storm surge and coastal flooding. If the center of circulation makes a direct impact or remains just offshore, the Tampa Bay area should be keeping a close eye on Ian.
There were voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders in some parts of the country. Before the storm arrives, residents were encouraged to check their evacuated areas.
Ian's size is one of the factors to watch. The impact of a Hurricane is determined by the size of the storm.
There will be more cloud cover and therefore more rain when there is a big storm. The storm surge will reach a bigger area. If the storm is large enough, it could cause storm surge on the eastern side of the Florida Peninsula.
A smaller storm, like Hurricane Andrew in 1992, is more of a wind storm and the effects are in a smaller area. Wind damage can be catastrophic in smaller systems.
It is too early to say how big Ian will be, but it is expected to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a chance of heavy rain, flash flooding, storm surge, isolated tornadoes and strong winds.
The conversation published this article. The original article is worth a read.
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