As Ian's center passed across the western edge of Cuba, it had sustained winds of 125 mph. Warm water and low wind shear in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will allow for further intensification of the storm.
As Ian approaches the western coast of Florida on Wednesday it will start to run into a trough of low pressure that will affect the southeastern United States. Ian may only be moving a few miles per hour for a couple of days.
It's difficult to say which parts of the Florida peninsula will suffer the most from all of this. The breakdown of its steering currents is to blame.
The densely populated Tampa region is built around a large bay that could serve as a funnel for storm surge. A replacement cost of $126 billion has been found for more than half a million homes that are vulnerable to surge of water caused by a Hurricane over the ocean. Half of the metro area's population lives in homes that are less than 10 feet high.
AdvertisementDue to its large population and the fact that it has not been hit by a major Hurricane in more than a century, the Tampa region has received a lot of attention in the run up to Ian's landfall. The region has not been directly impacted by a powerful Hurricane since October of 1921. The region's population has more than doubled in the last 10 years.
It would bring a devastating storm surge to the area, along with major wind damage, if Ian made a direct hit on the area. It would be the worst case scenario for a storm to hit the area.
Due to the lack of certainty about Ian's track, it is1-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-6556 is1-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-6556 The storm surge to the right of the center is always worse than the one to the left. Even though it would still be bad, it would spare the bay from a lot of flood damage.
Ian is expected to make a landfall along the west or southwest coast of Florida and then travel north across the peninsula. It will still pack a punch even though the winds will be slightly reduced. According to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 1-in-5 chance that an inland community will experience hurricanes.
There is a serious threat of heavy and lengthy rain for inland areas of Florida. Ian's slow movement will make these rains worse as part of his large structure remains offshore.
AdvertisementAs Ian moves inland, it is likely that a swath of 15 to 25 inches of rain will cover a significant area of the Florida peninsula. Those who have their roofs damaged by wind or are without power will be worse off.
The storm center is very close to the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station if the latest track forecast is to be believed. NASA decided on Monday to use the Vehicle Assembly Building as a shelter from the elements. The Artemis I mission is likely to be delayed by six weeks, but that is better than the damage to the vehicles.
The two television broadcast satellites for SES will be launched on Friday, September 30. It's expected to be delayed. The next crew mission to the International Space Station is being planned by NASA. The Crew-5 launch could be delayed if Ian causes damage to the spaceport and the lives of those who work there.
The Crew Dragon is going to be in the Falcon 9 rocket. The vehicles are in a hangar in Florida. Gerstenmaier said during the news conference that they were ready to roll out whenever the weather was ready.