The Big Idea: can you learn to predict the future?

There is no shortage of people who think their animals can predict the future. It is easy to dismiss claims like Nostradamus or slippery coincidences.

Is there anyone who can tell us what will happen? We look to academics and political pundits to help us understand the world. For example, if we wanted to know what was going on in Ukraine, we could ask someone who has studied the Russian military forces. We could go to an economist for the outlook on inflation in the future. The evidence shows that academics and commentators don't do well.

Philip Tetlock decided to test experts predictions in the mid 1980s. Hundreds of academics and pundits who spent their lives thinking about politics were recruited by him. They turned their thoughts to questions such as how long the Soviet Union would last, or who would be the next president. Someone could say that there was a 30% chance that the Soviet Union would fall. The experts just weren't that good at anticipating events when the forecasts were tested against reality. Many of them did a good job as well as someone did a poor job. The chimp was thrown a dart by a few people.

It wasn't just experts that signed up. The adverts were aimed at people who were interested in predicting the future. The first year saw 3,200 people sign up. The tournament had been going on for a while and he implemented an algorithm to give the most accurate forecasts more weight. He pushed the probabilities closer to zero. The ordinary people who replied to advertisements ended up producing better forecasts than intelligence analysts who had access to classified information. The individuals with the best track records were given the title of "superforecasters".

They were so good. The superforecasters were almost impervious to the biases that affected their predictions. One of those biases is called "scope insensitivity". How likely is it that Keir Starmer is going to be the leader of the opposition in a year? Is the forecast reasonable to you? There is a chance of at least 85%.

Imagine that you were asked about two years ago. Do you think your answer would have changed? You are guilty of scope insensitivity if you give the same answers to the same questions, but actually require different calculations. Superforecasters arescope sensitive. Confirmation bias and overconfidence are cognitive distortions that allow them to make better predictions.

Superforecasters hear a question and start thinking about why the seemingly obvious answer is likely to be wrong

Is it possible to become a superforecaster with enough effort? A bit of both is what the answer is. The best forecasters have characteristics that others don't. Do you think it would take 100 machines to make 100 widgets? I am sorry to say that you failed the cognitive reflection test because you went with your gut rather than thinking more carefully. Most forecasters get the correct answer in five minutes. The kind of person who hears a question and immediately starts thinking about why the answer is likely to be wrong.

You can improve your prediction skills. The accuracy of novice forecasters was increased by 10%. Learning to focus on the base-rate is one of the classic forecasting techniques. Imagine what a good prediction would have been for the Batley and Spen by election in 2020. The Conservatives were thought to have a good chance of taking the seat from Labour, but it was only a small chance. The Labour party did win. In the last four years, there have been 25 byelections in Labour-held seats. The base rate is a far cry from the odds.

Can this change anything in the real world? The British government is taking a chance. Civil servants have been making forecasts on everything from Covid infection rates to the chance that China is going to invade Taiwan as part of the Cosmic Bazaar. The United States is looking at setting up a forecasting platform in order to improve intelligence analysis. NGOs have been working with superforecasters and early warning experts to better anticipate humanitarian crises around the world. Predicting the future has the potential to become more of a science than an art and we don't need to leave it in the hands of astrologers.

Sam is a writer about politics and philosophy.

Philip and Dan are the authors of superforecasting.

The noise was written by Daniel Kahneman, and was published byHarper-Collins.

Annie Duke wrote thinking in bets.