On September 26th, 1992, Hurricane Ian hit.
There was uncertainty in the models about exactly where Hurricane Ian was going to hit, but it was clear to me that it was going to be a threat for Florida. The models are starting to agree with the coastal area of Florida in the target zone. The forecast track, subtle changes in the projected speed of Hurricane Ian, and the number of vulnerable coastal properties are very concerning for me. There is a reason here.
The storm is getting stronger. It is taking on all of the characteristics of a typical Hurricane such as deep thunderstorms near the center, an eye feature, and rain bands. Ian is likely to be a major Hurricane when it approaches Cuba. The island is not expected to affect the intensity of Ian. This is where the situation becomes grave. The storm will make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. As it tracks toward the bay area, it is predicted to be a major hurricane.
The official track forecast for Ian.
In April of this year, Jeff Berardelli wrote, "It's been over a century since a major Hurricane hit the area." Many storms have hit the area. The Director of the National Hurricane Center at the time warned that the luck along the West Coast of Florida would eventually run out. People are shocked when I tell them that there have only been four Category 4 or greater storms in the last 50 years. There is a chance that Ian will come perilously close to the coast. Since it will be on the right side of the eye, it will be the worst part of the storm.
Two scholars at Georgia State University, Risa Palm and Toby Bolsen, recently declared in The Conversation that coastal home buyers are ignoring rising flood risks despite warnings. Some parts of Florida are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge from stronger hurricanes. The scholars said that because of rising sea levels and storm risks resulting from climate change, many of the houses currently being sold in south Florida will not last as long as their 30-year mortgage. The projected storm surge for Ian is in the range of 5 to 8 feet.
There is a peak storm surge forecast for September 26th.
The Bay News 9 website has an article about Hurricane Easy, which hit the area in 1950. One of the worst storm Surges on record was produced by that storm. 45 inches of rain was recorded in Yankeetown, Florida because of the storm's stalling. There is something frightening in the predictions for Ian. It is expected to stall on the coast. If the pattern holds, I think there will be impacts for the Tampa Bay Area on Tuesday and Friday.
The problem is captured by Ben Noll. Ian will be a major problem for Florida's west coast starting Tuesday. What's the reason? The forward speed will slow to a crawl as it approaches the state. The blocking ridge of high pressure is a sign. In the last few years, we've seen such systems as Harvey and Dorian. The storms caused a lot of damage. The storms may be stalling more near the North American coast. Ian is particularly worried about the water impacts, which are the most deadly aspects of hurricanes.
It is likely that Ian will hit northern Florida at the beginning of the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Saturday morning in Georgia.
The skyline ofTampa, Florida, is seen September 10, 2017. Hurricane Irma regained strength to a Category 4 storm early Sunday as it began battering Florida.
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