Where will Ian make landfall after intensifying in the Gulf? ‘Significant uncertainty.’

Tropical Storm Ian is expected to intensify into a major Hurricane once it moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico, but weather officials can't say where it will hit.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said that once the storm emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico the spread in the track guidance increases. Future adjustments to this portion of the forecast will likely be required because of the uncertainty in the long-range track forecast.

As the tropical storm passes southwest of Jamaica, Ian is expected to make a turn to the northwest. According to the NHC, the center of Ian is expected to be near or over western Cuba by Tuesday.

There is a storm warning in place.

At 1 p.m., the storm had maxiumum gusts. The NHC expects Ian to strengthen into a Category 3 or 4 storm as it moves through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC forecast reflects the potential of Ian and the intensity guidance is very aggressive.

Ian’s track and the ‘cone of uncertainty’

Ian's track changed multiple times Saturday as the storm gained strength.

There is a 10 a.m. event. Ian is expected to stay in the Gulf of Mexico for more than 48 hours before hitting the Florida Panhandle, according to the NHC.

Most of Florida is in the middle of uncertainty. Weather officials say the entire Gulf Coast region should be on alert because of the uncertain path of the storm.

All eyes from central Gulf Coast to the spine of Florida should be ready for action.

Ian expected to weaken before landfall

Ian will be a major storm for most of the time it is in the Gulf, but will likely weaken to a Category 2 storm before it makes a direct hit.

According to the NHC, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is forecast by the global models, and this is forecast to induce some weakening as the vertical structure of the Hurricane is disrupted.

According to the forecast, the entire Mississippi Coast, southern Alabama, parts of Georgia and South Carolina and all of Florida will feel tropical storm or Hurricane force winds from Ian.

Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida Panhandle.

Every three hours, the NHC gives an update on Tropical Storm Ian.