Tropical Storm Ian continued to strengthen in the eastern Caribbean on Saturday and is expected to become a powerful Category 3 Hurricane as it nears Cuba.
As of 5 p.m., most of Florida was still in the cone. Much of the South Florida was taken out of the cone of concern because the track shifted to the west throughout the day.
After 72 hours, the track remained uncertain and a jog back to the east would shift the cone along with the storm.
Jamie Rhone, acting director of the NHC, warned Floridians not to get fixated on the small changes in the track, which could be easily moved back.
He said in the morning that if you think you are out of the woods, you are wrong. In the South Florida peninsula, you have to keep your guard up.
The track indicated a landfall north of Cedar Key on Wednesday. There were three hops in the track in a row.
Throughout the week, heavy winds and rain could be heard across the state. On Saturday afternoon, Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration to the entire state.
Residents were urged to finish their preparations by Monday evening. The emergency managers in the Florida Keys decided to wait until Sunday morning to make a decision on whether to evacuate.
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Ian's maximum sustained winds remained at 45 mph most of Saturday. It was about 260 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, which was under a tropical storm watch. It was going at a slightly faster pace than earlier in the day.
Ian was expected to strengthen further on Saturday and Sunday because of the wind shear leftover from the previous storm.
Ian is projected to hit a patch of ocean water that powers it into a storm. When a storm gains at least 30 mph of sustained winds in a 24 hour period, it could quickly intensify.
It is projected to approach Cuba as a Category 3 Hurricane with 125 mph winds, and then intensify into a Category 4 with 130 mph winds in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Ian could weaken to a Category 2 before hitting Florida.
You have a survival guide for hurricanes in Miami.
Despite a trend west most of the day Saturday that moved Southeast Florida even more out of the cone, Ian's approach to Florida's west coast is still unclear.
A range of nearly 180 miles was covered by the spread of potential paths by computer models, according to the Hurricane center.
The positions that range from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida are noted by the group. The track forecast may need to be adjusted given the increased uncertainty.
Even though Ian strengthened to a tropical storm, he is still disorganized. Ian's is still taking shape even though models can't predict future paths without a clearly defined center.
The storm's center was a little south of where previous models expected it to be, which could have consequences for a Florida landfall.
Ian's mid-level center is being blown southwestward by persistent wind shear and its formative low-level circulation is chasing it. The system could be tugged to the south and west by the distribution of the storms.
The ridge of air over the Northeast U.S. is one of the most important factors in where the storm goes.
Dozens of NWS offices across the US will be releasing extra weather balloons on Saturday to help gather more information about that ridge.
The Miami NWS office said that small changes in the track could make a big difference.
If you are outside the uncertainty is still important.
Heavy rains could start in South Florida and the Keys on Monday. The NWS Miami office expects 4 to 6 inches of rain across the Florida peninsula.
western to central Cuba is expected to get six to 10 inches of rain, according to the NHC.
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has a low chance of forming this week. Tropical Storm Hermine was demoted to a depression and Tropical Storm Gaston left the Azores. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland were lashed with record-breaking winds by a post-tropical storm.
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