Tropical Storm Ian is raising uncertainty for Florida as a small shift in the track could mean a $30 billion disaster forTampa or a landfall in the Panhandle next Thursday.
According to the US National Hurricane Center, Ian had top winds of 45 miles per hour. By the middle of next week, the storm could become a Category 3 Hurricane with winds of 115 mph.
Initial tracks seem to point to a direct hit in other storms, but they shift away and hit the Panhandle or central Gulf coast.
The concern with the track is that it is a very rare track for a storm to go down.
The launch of Artemis I Moon was delayed because of the risk of a tropical storm.
As much as $30 billion in losses and damage could be caused by a direct strike on Tampa from a Category 3 Hurricane, according to a disaster modeler. Ryan Truchelut, president of commercial-forecast Weather Tiger, said there was a 40% chance it would hit the city and a 45% chance it would miss the city.
Ian is part of the issue. Predicting where a storm will go is dependent on the center of the storm being developed.
The center is moving. The structure of the storm has not been resolved yet.
When Ian was first named, it appeared to be further north, but since then Hurricane Hunter aircraft have found it is south, which means it could take a more easterly track.
It's possible that this is a better outcome for Cuba. Ian is expected to cross western Cuba Tuesday before heading into Florida.
Large weather patterns across the US are one of the factors. Ian is likely to be pulled north by a low-pressure trough in the eastern US. Where Ian goes will be determined by how and when these pieces come together.
Truchelut said a trend toward the west wouldn't just help Tampa, it could also help Miami and other areas in southern Florida.
Ian is the ninth storm of the year. After battering parts of the Caribbean and Puerto Rico, Hurricane Fiona knocked out power in Nova Scotia.
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