Russia's wheat harvest could hit a record 100 million tons this year, but a perfect storm of economic conditions is keeping it from being exported

Russia may see a bumper wheat harvest this year, but it may not translate into a lot of exports to fight the world's food crisis.

According to SovEcon, the country's wheat harvest could hit a record 100 million metric tons. According to US Department of Agriculture data, Russia is the world's top wheat exporter and accounts for 20% of the world's wheat exports.

—Andrey Sizov (@sizov_andre) September 19, 2022

According to the USDA, the country's wheat harvest last year was 75.2 million tons.

According to SovEcon's managing director, this huge crop isn't converting into huge exports. Russian wheat is stuck at home due to issues like higher government taxes and logistical problems.

It is possible that companies are being extra cautious about trading with the country.

Although food supplies are exempt from Western sanctions, bankers and insurers are wary of doing business with Russia, while shipping lines are reluctant to risk sending their vessels into a conflict zone.

According to the International Grain Council's report released on Thursday, global wheat production is expected to be more than 785 million tons.

The benchmark wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are up 20% so far this year, after surging 70% in March.