The aviation industry needs to overhaul its response to climate change

According to a commentary article from the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, aviation's impact on the climate crisis requires radical solutions.

The industry produces 1 billion tons of CO 2 per year, which is similar to Japan. Emissions from flights have been going up. Over the next 30 years, the industry is on course to produce more CO 2 than it has in the past.

No carbon-free replacement technologies exist at adequate scale to address pollution from aircraft because renewable energy has scaled up to replace fossil fuels in power generation and electric vehicles.

Many of the strategies that governments and firms are pursuing rely on familiar technologies. David Victor is a professor of innovation and public policy at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. Major disruptions to how the industry operates are required to eliminate aviation's impact on global warming. It will be harder to find effective solutions if reality is not changed.

The assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in Montreal, Canada, from September 27 to October 7, will attempt to negotiate an industry-wide target for cutting emissions.

The two most commonly proposed solutions, cleaner fuels and carbon offsetting, are grossly inadequate according to the authors.

A carbon offsetting is a reduction or removal of emissions of greenhouse gases that is used to compensate for emissions that occur elsewhere. The track record of reliable accounting in these industries isn't good according to the authors.

They write that forest projects are often plagued by wild assumptions, for example that trees would disappear from these areas in the absence of those projects.

Cleaner aviation fuel, which currently comes from conventional biofuel sources, may be impossible to produce in sufficient volumes and at low prices to replace all jet fuel. Efforts to achieve the levels of clean fuel adoption that many governments and firms aim for will require commercializing new production methods that are still technologically infancy.

Climate impacts of contrails, which trap heat from the earth's surface, are not likely to be addressed by either solution.

There should be solutions that disrupt.

Climate scientists don't understand the warming effects of contrails and so they're not given much attention by industry and governments. It's possible that the effects are small and that the rerouting of aircraft around the worst weather conditions could be used to manage them. The impact of aviation on the climate could be as much as half of the total impact according to some studies.

The study suggests that big, costly and financially risky decisions may need to be made to address the problem. The authors would like to see more experimentation to see what works and what doesn't.

Airlines operate on thin margins and resistance to disruptive efforts is understandable. Many airlines want to do something about climate but are stuck with few practical options.

The industry should take three steps to address a warming planet.

The industry and government must do their homework. They need to be aware of the risks associated with the current approach to aviation's role in the climate crisis.

Second, small collaborations between the most motivated governments and firms could be formed to take risks and inspire others to do the same. There is a partnership between the Norwegian government and businesses.

Concrete strategies of how other collaborations could be established are provided by the authors. By sharing costs and risk, groups could invest in hydrogen, electricity, and a cleaner version of sustainable aviation fuel. Since European governments are motivated to take the climate problem seriously, they are looking to Europe to lead the way.

The authors emphasize how important research is to understand the atmosphere. It could provide solutions in many areas.

More information: Steffen Kallbekken et al, A cleaner future for flight—aviation needs a radical redesign, Nature (2022). DOI: 10.1038/d41586-022-02963-7 Journal information: Nature