Why Typhoon Merbok Was So Powerful when It Hit Alaska

The following essay is covered in The Conversation, an online publication.

Houses were pushed off their foundations and protective berms were torn apart when the remnants of Merbok hit Alaska.

There aren't many storms here, but Merbok built up over warm water. The storm surge sent water levels into communities at near record highs along with near-hurricane force winds.

When the region's Indigenous communities are stocking up on food for the winter, Merbok hits. The impact of the storm on coastal Alaskans was explained by a climate scientist.

What stands out the most about this storm?

It isn't unusual for typhoons to affect parts of Alaska in the fall.

Historically few typhoons form in the eastern part of the Pacific. The water in the north-central Pacific is too warm to support a typhoon.

Since last winter, the Western Bering Sea has been running above average. Since the beginning of the year, the Eastern Bering Sea has been slightly cooler than normal. The storm intensified due to the temperature difference in the Bering Sea.

The strongest storm this early in the autumn was caused by Merbok. Stronger storms occur in October and November.

Did climate change have a bearing on the storm?

Merbok is likely to have formed where it did because of the warm ocean.

There is more water in the atmosphere. Merbok was able to bring that warm moist air along with it. There wouldn't have been as much water in the storm if the ocean had been cooler in 1960.

How extreme was the flooding compared to past storms?

The area that was damaged is one of the most outstanding features. The impact was felt in all coastal regions north of Bristol Bay.

One of the few places in western Alaska where we have long term ocean level information is Nome. That is the highest it has been in nearly 50 years.

Flooding in Nome on Saturday pic.twitter.com/CgXO2i2Hk9

— KNOM (@knomradio) September 18, 2022

Multiple houses are floating off their foundations in Newtok.

Losing a berm is very bad news. The community's freshwater supply was easily swamped with saltwater prior to the berm being built. Even a moderate storm could inundate the community's water supply. How quickly is a matter of time and money.

Update: The storm has destroyed Shaktoolik’s berm, its main protection from the sea, says mayor Lars Sookiayak. "We're pretty heartbroken," he said. He's worried about tonight, when seas are expected to pound the coastline again. Photo from Gloria Andrew.https://t.co/Zn4sph3NjO pic.twitter.com/H0J4fqHfxj

— Alaska Public Media News (@AKpublicnews) September 18, 2022

Along the coast, there are hunting and fishing camps. The camps are important because of the region's economy.

These camps are difficult to get lumber for because there are no roads into these coastal communities. The stormiest time of the year makes recovery harder and planes can't land.

There were a lot of places that lost power. There is no alternative to the power that comes from the community. People are stocking up on food for the winter. If there is only one grocery store in a town, there is nothing else to do.

Update: The storm has destroyed Shaktoolik’s berm, its main protection from the sea, says mayor Lars Sookiayak. "We're pretty heartbroken," he said. He's worried about tonight, when seas are expected to pound the coastline again. Photo from Gloria Andrew.https://t.co/Zn4sph3NjO pic.twitter.com/H0J4fqHfxj

— Alaska Public Media News (@AKpublicnews) September 18, 2022

The time when it is possible to make repairs is running out. In western Alaska, hunting season is in the middle of the year and it is not recreation. Most of these are mostly Indigenous communities. All of these things are coming together at the same time because of the time taken for repairs.

Does the lack of sea ice as a buffer make a difference for erosion?

Even a small amount of sea ice can be used to protect against storms. There is no ice in the sea at this time of year. The waves pound right to the beach.

Climate change will cause more damage from storms later in the year.

Are there lessons from this storm for Alaska?

This storm was very bad and will be followed by others. State and federal governments need to do a better job of helping communities and tribes in this part of the world.

It's possible to evacuate vulnerable people. It's too late if you wait until you know there is a problem. Most of these communities are not connected to the outside world.

This is a classic case of large-scale weather models showing a general idea of the risk, but it takes more time to respond for isolated communities. There isn't enough time for communities to prepare for a storm if they aren't briefed until a day or two before the storm.

The conversation published this article. The original article is worth a read.